25 May 2001, 11:22 Europe FX Opening: Summary of overnight moves and what's ahead
London, May 25 (BridgeNews) - The following is a summary of overnight
moves since Europe's close, plus possible leaders for the session ahead:
KEY ISSUES:
* Majors stick to ranges, U.S., U.K, Q1 GDP revisions eyed
* Official comments raise temperature about possible interventions
--Major FX rates generally kept to inside ranges in Asia amid some
interesting comments from U.S., Japanese and euro zone officials.
--USD/JPY oscillated within a 118.93-120.36 range in Asia. An initial
downside foray met good demand attributed to a Japanese account. It then
fell back after Fed Chair Greenspan said U.S. inflation seems "likely to
be contained" and that there was still a risk of greater-than-expected
economic weakening. But it bounced back into the European open after
former Japanese Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Sakakibara
was reported to have said he doesn't expect the JPY to move above its
recent range, which was taken as a warning of possible BOJ intervention.
Adding to the mix, Japanese Finance Minister Shiokawa said Economy
Minister Takenaka had proposed a wider and active use of Japan's FX
reserves to aid economic recovery. The Financial Times, meantime, quotes
Keidanren's Imai saying Japan may need to nationalize one or two large
banks and also runs a story saying that Japanese banks' bad loan problems
may be getting worse rather than better.
--EUR/JPY largely traded in step with USD/JPY between 102.50-103.35.
--EUR/USD was similarly locked between 0.8562-0.8600. Before Greenspan
spoke, Fed's Meyer sparked some interest by saying U.S. inflation was
running higher than an acceptable long-run level. He also said the
continued rise of the USD versus the EUR was a "puzzle" and expressed
caution about any Japanese strategy that would lower the JPY. Heading into
Europe's open, BBK President Welteke is being reported as saying the ECB
is still watching the EUR as recent inflationary pressures have been
induced by the currency's weakness. This may raise fears of possible ECB
intervention. The first revision of U.S. first quarter growth data is due
1230 GMT (forecast: 1.4% from 2.0% and deflator unchanged at 3.2%). U.S.
April durable goods data are due 1400 GMT.
--USD/CHF mirrored EUR/USD in a 1.7738-86 range in Asia, while EUR/CHF
kept to 1.5235-1.5252.
--The GBP remained under pressure, with cable holding just above
Thursday's 6-month low of 1.4075 and EUR/GBP touching a 4-day high of
0.6101. Support could come today from the FT report that U.K.'s BT is
close to selling Yell to U.S.'s Hicks, Muse, Tate and Furst and Apax
Partners for around 2 billion GBP.
The FT also quotes U.K. Prime Minister Blair as saying he thinks he can
win a i referendum on joining the euro zone. The second estimate of U.K.
first quarter growth is released at 0830 GMT (first estimate: up 0.3% on
quarter).
--A U.S. investment house was said to counter sales from another U.S.
account and a corporate player in AUD/USD, driving the pair to a 2-day
high of 0.5221.
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