23 May 2001, 16:53 US FX Daily Outlook: Euro extends losses; yen lifted by crosses (part 2)
* EUR/USD slumped to a 6-month low this morning as former EUR bulls were
forced to liquidate positions on the back of the poor euro-zone data. The
pair went from a session high of 0.8661 to 0.8569, although a U.S.
investment bank has bid the pair up slightly again.
German Q1 growth came in at 0.4% for the quarter and 1.6% for the
year. It had been forecast to come in at 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 2.0%
year-on-year.
French growth also came in a disappointing 0.5% for Q1 and 2.7%
year-on-year against a forecast of 0.7% on quarter and 3.1% year-on-year.
French EU-harmonized CPI for April was 0.6% month-on-month and 2.0%
year-on-year.
German state CPI from Hesse, Baden-Wuettemberg and North Rhine
Westphalia all came in well above forecast. Providing some solace for the
euro zone was its trade surplus for March, which came in at 4.3 bln EUR,
up from 0.3 bln in Feb.
Euro-zone consumer inflation, at a 7-year high in April, should peak this
month as effects of livestock disease on food prices recede and gasoline
prices decline, the association of German Banks predicts in its latest
monthly outlook.
The outlook is slightly bearish.
Support: 0.8566 (overnight low; 6-month low), 0.8427 (support line
declining since Jan. 25), 0.8372 (Nov. 23 low).
Resistance: 0.8670 (overnight high), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8837 (20-day moving
average), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5
uptrend), 0.8924 (200-day moving average).
* USD/JPY sank to an 18-day low of 120.75, breaking the support of a
trendline at 121.60 on wide spread sales of JPY crosses, such as EUR/JPY,
CHF/JPY, GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY.
Overnight, BOJ minutes said board members agreed that more easing
would be hard to mull. Meanwhile, Japan's State Minister for Economic and
Fiscal Policy Heizo Takenaka said Tuesday the disposal of 1 trillion yen
in bad loans held by Japanese banks would boost unemployment by 10,000,
according to local media reports.
The economic data showed Japan's April corporate service prices fall
0.7% on year.
The outlook is slightly bearish below the 121.05 Gann 50-point pivot,
which targets 120.55 and 121.55.
Support: 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55), 120.75
(overnight low), 120.53 (May 4 low), 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets:
119.15/120.15), 119.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the August
1998-December 1999 downtrend).
Resistance: 122.47 (60-day moving average), 122.49 (20-day moving
average), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00), 122.94
(overnight high), 124.00 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 123.50/124.50),
124.05 (May 16 peak).
* EUR/JPY saw a lot of heavy selling during the Asian and early European
sessions. The pair went from 106.40 to 103.63, a 5-month low. The pair was
subsequently bid back up above the 104 level. Comments from Japan's MOF
Kuroda that the EUR/JPY exchange rate did not reflect economic
fundamentals have been partly attributed to the EUR's modest recovery.
The outlook is slightly bearish.
Support: 103.63 (overnight low), 105.80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement
level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend), 104.15 (Feb. 16 trough; year's
low).
Resistance: 106.37 (overnight high), 108.22 (20-day moving average),
109.19 (100-day moving average), 109.67 (60-day moving average), 111.02
(50% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend),
112.03 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the January 1999-October 2000
downtrend), 112.15 (April 27 peak), 113.71 (April 4 high; 17-month high).
* GBP/USD fell to a one-week low 1.4171 before trimming losses. The pair's
decline has been well forecast by Monday bearish doji reversal signal on
the candlestick charts.
The big story in the minutes of the BOE MPC's policy meeting for May,
was that the members voted 8-1 for a 25-bp reduction. Despite EUR/GBP
falling this morning, cable has dropped almost a cent. It has gone from
1.4289 to 1.4195.
EUR/GBP has dipped to a 6-month low of 0.6029 from 0.6066.
The GBP/USD outlook is slightly bearish.
Support: 1.4195 (overnight low), 1.4143 (May 11 low; 4 1/2-month low),
1.3966 (Nov. 24 trough).
Resistance: 1.4289 (overnight high), 1.4304 (20-day moving average),
1.4367 (60-day moving average), 1.4402 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
of Nov.-Jan. uptrend), 1.4534 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the
Nov.-Jan. rally), 1.4474 (100-day moving average), 1.4666 (38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level of the Nov.-Jan. rally).
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