21 May 2001, 16:55  US FX Daily Outlook: Euro extends losses on MSCI, Ifo fears (part 2)

* USD/JPY edged lower within the previous day's range as the MSCI re-weighting was not as bad for the JPY as previously assumed. Pressure on USD/JPY also came from news that Proctor & Gamble had beaten Japan's Kao in the race to buy Clairol. The pair found support, though, from talk that 123.00 and 123.50 option plays are expiring at 1000 ET.
The outlook is mixed.

Support: 123.02 (overnight low), 122.53 (20-day moving average), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00), 122.30 (60-day moving average).
Resistance: 123.80 (overnight high), 124.00 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 123.50/124.50), 124.05 (May 16 peak), 124.35 (April 27 peak), 125.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 125.00/126.00), 126.84 (April 2 high; 29-month high).

* EUR/USD fell to a 6-day low of 0.8740 on sales led by a U.S. bank, which executed a selling order for over 500 million EUR. Sales by a French account added to the pressure.
Some traders linked the sales to this weekend's re-weighting of the MSCI which was even worse for the euro zone than previously feared. European equities traded in the red for most of the morning, while those in the U.K. remained in positive territory.
Pressure on EUR/USD also came from reports Germany's 6 institutes may revise down their 2001 growth forecast from the current 2.1%. The pair finally found some support amid talk of commercial bids from the Bundesbank and Bank of France.
USD/CHF lagged EUR/USD to a 1-week high of 1.7530 as EUR/CHF dropped to a 5-day low of 1.5311. Fears of SNB offers above 1.75 were stoked by talk a Swiss account appeared briefly on the bid in EUR/USD in the 0.8760s.
The EUR/USD outlook is slightly bearish, with pair preparing for a breakout from the 0.8740-70 intraday sideways range.

Support: 0.8740 (overnight low), 0.8695 (April 18 low; 4-1/2-month low).
Resistance: 0.8820 (overnight high), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8869 (20-day moving average), 0.8929 (200-day moving average), 0.8963 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-Oct. downtrend), 0.8979 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend), 0.9091 (April 5 peak).

* EUR/JPY was dragged down by EUR/USD to a 6-day low of 107.68. The cross currency will continue to drag its feet around the 20-day moving average, now at 108.66, unless the EUR/USD finally sinks to a new year low, carrying it down toward 107.00.
The outlook is mixed to slightly bearish.

Support: 107.68 (overnight low), 106.80 (May 11 low), 106.69 (April 18 low; 7-week low), 105.80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend), 104.15 (Feb. 16 trough; year's low).
Resistance: 108.66 (20-day moving average), 108.88 (overnight high), 109.23 (100-day moving average), 109.76 (60-day moving average).

* GBP/USD fell on profit taking from a 17-day high of 1.4414 while EUR/GBP slipped to a 5-month low of 0.6088.
U.K. data were mixed, with trade figures for March and April coming in worse-than-expected, provisional M4 numbers falling short of forecasts, April public finances data just failing to match expectations, although still posting a healthy surplus, and lending data for April remaining generally strong.
The GBP/USD outlook is mixed.

Support: 1.4357 (overnight low), 1.4143 (May 11 low; 4 1/2-month low), 1.3966 (Nov. 24 trough).
Resistance: 1.4414 (overnight high), 1.4316 (20-day moving average), 1.4373 (60-day moving average), 1.4402 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of Nov.-Jan. uptrend), 1.4534 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov.-Jan. rally), 1.4488 (100-day moving average), 1.4666 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement e level of the Nov.-Jan. rally).

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