21 May 2001, 11:14 Europe FX Opening: Summary of overnight moves and what's ahead
London, May 21 (BridgeNews) - The following is a summary of overnight
moves since Europe's close, plus possible leaders for the session ahead:
KEY ISSUES:
* USD eases lower across board, GBP and AUD lead the way
* USD/JPY slips. No immediate impact from MSCI reweightings
* Gold extends Friday's rally, boosts AUD
* GBP up on MSCI, M&A speculation
--The USD edged lower across the board overnight, with the GBP and
USD-bloc currencies leading the charge. The AUD in particular chalked up a
3-month high of 0.5316 as gold extended Friday's surge to a 15-month high
of $298.50.
--As usual USD/JPY saw most of the action in Asia, slipping from
123.80 to 123.02 as markets shrugged off the introduction of MSCI
reweightings over the weekend which are eventually expected to hit
Japanese equities. The Nikkei rose 299 points. Pressure on USD/JPY may
also have come from reports Japan's Kao may lose out to Proctor & Gamble
in the race to acquire U.S.'s Clairol. Against this, Time magazine claimed
Japan needs to let the JPY fall to 135-per USD. The BOJ left its overall
assessment of the Japanese economy unchanged in its May monthly report.
--EUR/JPY retreated with USD/JPY from a 4-day high of 108.88 to
108.30.
--EUR/USD nudged up within an inside range of 0.8790-0.8820 in Asia.
This was despite a report in the Berliner Zeitung that Germany's leading 6
institutes may revise down their forecast for 2.1% growth this year. A
light calendar today sees Fed's Jordan speaking at 1300 GMT, Fed's Meyer
at 1530 GMT, and ECB's Noyer at 1730 GMT. The Philadelphia Fed's quarterly
survey of professional forecasters is due at 1400 GMT.
--The GBP outperformed, with cable climbing to a 17-day high of 1.4414
and EUR/GBP ducking to a 5-month low of 0.6109. Some traders linked this
to the MSCI reweightings. However, M&A speculation may have been at least
as much to blame, with the Sunday Times reporting that Germany's
KarstadtQuelle may be lining up a 1 billion GBP bid for U.K.'s N Brown and
the Sunday Business saying Switzerland's Nestle and Suchard are eying
U.K.'s Thorntons. U.K. April M4 and public finances and March/April trade
data are due 0830 GMT. BOE MPC's Wadhwani speaks from around 1800 GMT.
--Rising with AUD/USD, NZD/USD struck a 2.5 month high of 0.4291,
while USD/CAD slipped to a 17-day low of 1.5315.
--Scandinavian markets are likely to be dominated by reports that
Finland's Sampo is lining up a bid for Norway's Storebrand, although Den
Norske Bank is also thought to be a potential buyer.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
A very light day of economic data sees the release of U.K. April
PSNCR, M4 and trade data at 0830 GMT. The data released over the past week
showed that U.K. consumers remain upbeat but U.K. price pressures remain
subdued. This should mean the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee
will be able to cut at
the repo rate further should it regard the knock on impact on the U.K.
economy from the U.S. slowdown is gathering momentum. Today's data is
unlikely to change that perception. Italian industrial orders data for
March should shed more light on the extent of the impact of the U.S.
slowdown on the euro zone.
The Bank of Japan releases its monthly economic assessment, with many in
the market expecting a downbeat prognosis of the economy's prospects. St.
Lois Fed President Poole and Cleveland Fed President Jordan both have
speaking engagements during the day. International equity market
participants will be surprised if the weekend's announcements regarding
changes to the MSCI indices vary from expectations.
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