17 May 2001, 16:16  German govt lowers 2001 tax revenues estimate by 6.8 bln dm to 891.1 bln

BERLIN (AFX) - The finance ministry said it is lowering its tax revenues estimate for 2001 by 6.8 bln dm to 891.1 bln dm as a result of a slowdown in economic growth from end-2000.
It also reiterated its forecast for GDP growth of "around 2 pct" in real terms and 3.5 pct nominally in 2001. This will accelerate to 2.25 pct in real terms and 4 pct nominally during the four-year period to 2005, it added.
It said the economic slowdown seen from end of last year and the start of this year has had a negative impact on tax estimates. It said tax receipts last year were below expectations and that together with the latest correction in key economic data, estimates for this year's tax revenues will be lower by 6.8 bln dm from 899.5 bln originally calculated last November.
Because the base figure has now been revised downward, the 2002-2004 tax revenues estimated made last May have correspondingly been revised downward.
For 2002, revenues are estimated to be down by 15.2 bln dm at 929.0 bln, down by 17.3 bln dm at 962.3 bln in 2003, and down by 26.0 bln at 1.009 trln in 2004, it added.
Last May, the tax revenue estimates had not taken into consideration the impact of the tax reform law approved by Parliament last year and due to take effect in 2002.
The ministry said despite the latest modifications in estimates, it is sticking to its original plan to present a budget without a deficit in 2006.
"But this is on the assumption that it maintains a strict discipline on expenditures," it said.

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