16 May 2001, 11:08 FOCUS FOMC leaves door wide open for further rate cuts
---- by GREG ROBB ----
WASHINGTON (AFX) - The Federal Open Market Committee remains
worried about the health of the economy and, as a result, left the door
wide open for further rate cuts, economists said.
"It is full steam ahead as far as easing goes," said James
O'Sullivan, economist at UBS Warburg.
As expected, the FOMC cut the funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.0
pct and maintained its policy bias toward continued easing.
Analysts were watching the statement closely for clues that the
easing might come to an end soon, but "there was absolutely no hint the
easing cycle can be wound down anytime soon," O'Sullivan said.
"The whole tone of the statement was consistent with the idea that
there is more easing ahead," he added.
Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc, in
a letter to clients, said the FOMC policy statement was only altered
slightly from the previous statement on April 18 "implying that
officials remained deeply concerned about the downside risks facing the
economy and remain prepared to ease further if conditions warrant."
Most analysts said they expected a 25 basis point reduction in
rates on June 27, but a few suggest there would be another 50 basis
point cut.
"The door is wide open for another rate cut - it's not over yet,"
said Chris Rupkey, vice president and senior financial economist with
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi. The Fed futures market has now priced in a 25
basis point cut in June, he said.
Ian Morris, chief economist at HSBC Securities, said he expects the
FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points in June and another 25 basis
points on Aug 21.
Many economists said that rates are not likely to fall below the
3.0 pct level reached in Sept 1992 and kept until Feb 1994.
Analysts said the most critical part of the FOMC statement was the
assertion that "inflation is expected to remain contained."
Jim Glassman, senior domestic economist at J.P Morgan Securities,
said the statement underscored the fact that, although there is concern
in the financial markets about inflation, "this is not the Fed's
concern."
"With global markets slowing down and the U.S. growing at half its
potential, there isn't anybody that is going to be worried about
inflation," Glassman said.
However, some economist do believe that the FOMC may be sowing the
seeds for higher inflation down the road.
"There is a real worry out there that we get a reacceleration in
growth without a reacceleration in business investment" that has kept
productivity high and inflation low, said Diane Swonk, chief economist
at Bank One.
Mickey Levy, chief economist at Banc of America Securities, said
the FOMC "has placed a far higher priority so far on managing the
economic slowdown, and preventing a capital spending collapse, than on
ensuring that its policy remains consistent with its longer-term goal
of continued low, stable inflation."
"This may be a serious mistake...with higher energy costs
constraining the growth pace of U.S. output, there is a growing chance
that another acceleration of dollar spending growth will rsult in
rising inflation," Levy said.
© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved