15 May 2001, 17:25  US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar mixed ahead of the Fed decision (part2)

* USD/JPY climbed to a 2-week high of 123.64 despite supply rumored to be coming from Japanese lifers. Reported buying by a Swiss name helped the pair advance. Key resistance is 124.00 from the Gann 50-point pivot, which targets 123.50 and 124.50.
The outlook is slightly bullish.

Support: 123.09 (overnight low), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00), 122.24 (20-day moving average), 121.85 (60-day moving average), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55), 120.53 (May 4 low), 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 119.15/120.15), 119.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the August 1998-December 1999 downtrend).
Resistance: 123.64 (overnight high), 124.00 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 123.50/124.50), 124.35 (April 27 peak), 125.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 125.00/126.00), 126.84 (April 2 high; 29-month high).

* EUR/USD climbed up on profit taking from a low of 0.8733 to a high of 0.8772. Buying interest from a French name earlier combined with purchases from a German name has been attributed to the EUR's rise.
Although generally positive, euro zone data haven't hampered its progress either.
Italian Q1 GDP came in higher than expected at 0.7% and was 2.3% for the year. German wholesale prices were also lower than expected, but traders reported minimal impact from the figures even in thin trading conditions.
Potentially, problems could be in store for the EUR following Silvio Berlusconi's win in Italy due to the divergence in ideology with his euro zone partners as well as to the breach of fiscal guidelines if his election pledges are pursued. The outlook is mixed to slightly bullish.

Support: 0.8738 (overnight low), 0.8695 (April 18 low; 4-1/2-month low).
Resistance: 0.8779 (overnight high), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8897 (20-day moving average), 0.8934 (200-day moving average), 0.8963 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-Oct. downtrend).

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