15 May 2001, 17:25 US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar mixed ahead of the Fed decision (part2)
* USD/JPY climbed to a 2-week high of 123.64 despite supply rumored to be
coming from Japanese lifers. Reported buying by a Swiss name helped the
pair advance. Key resistance is 124.00 from the Gann 50-point pivot, which targets
123.50 and 124.50.
The outlook is slightly bullish.
Support: 123.09 (overnight low), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets:
122.00/123.00), 122.24 (20-day moving average), 121.85 (60-day moving
average), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55), 120.53
(May 4 low), 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 119.15/120.15), 119.00
(38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the August 1998-December 1999
downtrend).
Resistance: 123.64 (overnight high), 124.00 (Gann 50-point pivot;
targets: 123.50/124.50), 124.35 (April 27 peak), 125.50 (Gann 50-point
pivot; targets: 125.00/126.00), 126.84 (April 2 high; 29-month high).
* EUR/USD climbed up on profit taking from a low of 0.8733 to a high of
0.8772. Buying interest from a French name earlier combined with purchases
from a German name has been attributed to the EUR's rise.
Although generally positive, euro zone data haven't hampered its
progress either.
Italian Q1 GDP came in higher than expected at 0.7% and was 2.3% for
the year. German wholesale prices were also lower than expected, but
traders reported minimal impact from the figures even in thin trading
conditions.
Potentially, problems could be in store for the EUR following Silvio
Berlusconi's win in Italy due to the divergence in ideology with his euro
zone partners as well as to the breach of fiscal guidelines if his
election pledges are pursued.
The outlook is mixed to slightly bullish.
Support: 0.8738 (overnight low), 0.8695 (April 18 low; 4-1/2-month
low).
Resistance: 0.8779 (overnight high), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8897 (20-day moving
average), 0.8934 (200-day moving average), 0.8963 (50% Fibonacci
retracement level of the June-Oct. downtrend).
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