10 May 2001, 17:31 * EUR/USD fell into negative territory after posting only fleeting gains
following the surprise ECB 25-bp rate cut and meeting resistance at 0.8919
from the 20-day moving average. With the pair hitting the skids after marking
a 3-day high of 0.8923, all eyes are on 0.8811, the previous low; a dip
below this level would open the gates for a test of the year low at
0.8695.
Some analysts are dismissing the ECB rate cut as too little too late.
In addition, it takes several months for any rate change to impact the
economy.
Still, the monetary easing shows that the ECB has finally started to
accept that its economy is not as insulated versus the slowdown in the
U.S. and Japan as it has abundantly advertised.
The outlook is bearish.
Support: 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan.
5 uptrend), 0.8833 (overnight low), 0.8811 (May 9 low), 0.8790 (38.2%
Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8695 (April
18 low; 4-1/2-month low).
Resistance: 0.8919 (20-day moving average), 0.8923 (overnight high),
0.8938 (200-day moving average), 0.8963 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the
June-Oct. downtrend), 0.8979 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the
July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend), 0.9091 (April 5 peak), 0.9127 (March 21 peak).
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