3 April 2001, 12:42  The Handelsblatt leading indicator for west German fell

FRANKFURT (MktNews) - The Handelsblatt leading indicator for west German fell for the fifth time in six months in April, pointing to the likelihood of the country's economic slowdown carrying over to the second half of the year, the business daily said in Tuesday's edition. The indicator for west Germany fell to 2.1% in April from 2.2% in March (revised up from 2.1%). April's level was the lowest since autumn 1999 and more than one point below the recent peak of 3.3% in October. The east German indicator fell to 2.9% in April from 3.1% in March and was well below the peak of 4.0% seen in August and September 2000. "As a result, the cooling of the economy is likely to extend into the second half of the year," Handelsblatt said. "German growth is now approaching the average rate seen in the 1980s." In particular, the newspaper pointed to the recent sharp declines in manufacturing orders and the Ifo index for business confidence. Still, Handelsblatt appeared to suggest that the risks of Germany, the euro area's largest economy, slipping into recession are slim. "While the economic data have certainly worsened, the Handelsblatt leading indicator, which has recently seen a slowing in the rate of decline, in no way signals a free fall in economic growth," it said. Handelsblatt concluded that the fortunes of the German economy later in the year "will depend, not least, on the course of (European Central Bank) monetary policy in the period ahead." The west German Handelsblatt economic indicator is based on the Ifo business sentiment index, orders in the manufacturing and construction sectors, the differential between short- and long-term interest rates, and retail sales. The indicator for east Germany is based on the Ifo business sentiment index for the manufacturing and retail sectors, as well as orders in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

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