25 April 2001, 13:15  EU forecasts robust growth for candidate countries

BRUSSELS, April 25 - Economic growth in the 13 countries that are candidates for EuropeanUnionmembership is likely to remain robust in 2001 and 2002, despite a weaker international environment,the EuropeanCommission predicted on Wednesday. It noted that, for the first time since the start of transition, all countries had recorded positive growth in 2000. However, the outlook for Turkey had become highly uncertain after two financial crises in November 2000 andFebruary 2001, the Commission said in a statement accompanying its spring economic forecasts. High unemployment will remain a major policy challenge in many candidate countries, but higher energy pricesseemed to have resulted in only a temporary rise in inflationary pressures, it said. The candidates are Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia,Slovenia, Cyprus, Malta and Turkey. For the overall group of 13 candidate countries, the Commission predicted GDP growth of 1.8 percentthis yearand 4.0 percent in 2002 after 4.6 percent growth in 2000. Inflation for the group as a whole was forecast to be 29.0 percent this year and 15.3 percent next year after 27.6percent in 2000. The report predicted GDP growth for the Czech Republic of 3.5 percent in 2001 followed by 4.0percent in 2002, for Hungary it foresaw growth of 4.6 percent this year and 5.0 percent next, and for Poland itforecast growth of 4.3 percent this year and 4.6 percent next. It forecast that Turkey's economy would shrink by 2.0 percent this year before expanding by 3.3 percent in 2002,but EU officials said these forecasts were uncertain because of the latest economic events in Turkey.

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