25 April 2001, 12:23  BOJ Keeps Rates Unchanged; to Release Price Forecasts

Tokyo, April 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged today, amonth after cutting rates to close to zero and pumping more money into the bankingsystem in a bid to keep the economy from stalling. With the bank having pledged to keep rates close to zero until consumer prices stop falling,no change in policy is expected soon. All 10 economists, analysts and traders surveyed byBloomberg News expected rates to remain on hold today. The unanimous decision wasannounced in a three-paragraph statement. ``The consensus in financial markets is the BOJ will keep this policy in place for two yearsor so,'' said Masuhisa Kobayashi, a fixed income strategist at Merrill Lynch Japan Inc.``What the BOJ wants to do now is to send a message that it's committed to hold thestatus quo for a long, long time.'' The onus is now on the government of incoming prime minister Junichiro Koizumi to followthrough on pledges to fix the economy. Koizumi, selected yesterday to lead the rulingLiberal Democratic Party, said he'll cap bond sales and push banks to write off bad loansfaster. A one-to-two year recession may be unavoidable if Japan undergoes such reform, hesaid. ``The outlook for reform is perhaps brighter than at anytime in the past decade,'' said DavidCarbon, a senior economist at WestDeutsche Landesbank in Singapore. Bonds held four days of gains after the bank kept rates steady. The new benchmark 10-yearbond was yielding 1.33 percent, a two-week low. ``Bonds are a buy as long as the BOJkeeps interest rate policy tied to the consumer price index, and we don't know when we aregoing to see inflation,'' said Masahiro Kami, who helps oversee about 400 billion yen ($3.2billion) at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. The yen was little changed, recently trading at 122.22 to the dollar, from 122.19 just beforethe BOJ announced its decision. Growth, Inflation Forecasts The central bank this month downgraded its economic outlook for the second straightmonth. BOJ Governor Masaru Hayami said expectations the economy would worsen hadbeen taken into account when the bank lowered rates last month. The BOJ will tomorrow release its twice-yearly forecasts for economic growth, consumerprices and wholesale prices. The report will show the range of forecasts from the nine boardmembers for the fiscal year started April 1. The report will be released at 8:50 a.m., tomorrow. The report may give an indication of when board members expect prices to stop falling, saidIzuru Kato, a senior market economist at Tokyo Tanshi Ltd. ``We are looking for clues as to how long the current policy will continue,'' Kato said. ``Wealso want to see how the board members' views differ.'' Consumer prices in Tokyo, excluding fresh food, have fallen from year-earlier levels for 18months, and wholesale prices have dropped for six months. The government today said the economy grew 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of last year,less than the initial estimate of 0.8 percent growth. Growth is expected to have slowed to0.5 percent in the first quarter this year, according to the latest Bloomberg News survey. Minutes of today's meeting will be published on June 20. The board next meets on May 17and 18.

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