25 April 2001, 08:13  U.S. consumer confidence tumbles in April

NEW YORK, April 24 - U.S. consumer confidence tumbled again in Aprilas deteriorating business conditions and job insecurity soured March's more upbeatmood in a Tuesday report that cemented expectations for more interest rate cuts fromthe Federal Reserve. The Conference Board said its broad index of consumer attitudes slid to 109.2 inApril, matching a 4-1/2-year low hit in February, and compared to a downwardlyrevised 116.9 in March. The survey was conducted before the Fed's surprise half-point interest rate cut last week. Separate reports on weekly chain store sales told a different tale, with U.S. retailersmeeting or beating their sales targets so far this month as warmer weather sentAmericans into their minivans and out to the malls. The drop in confidence in April was the sixth decline in seven months and the readingwas weaker than the 112.0 forecast by economists in a poll. "On balance, consumers are becoming more realistic about the job market," said StanShipley, senior economist at Merrill Lynch. "While consumer appraisal of employmentopportunities is still high, it has deteriorated sharply over the last six months." Analysts and Fed officials closely watch consumer confidence, particularly in times ofeconomic uncertainty, because it can sometimes affect consumer spending, whichaccounts for about two-thirds of economic growth. Richmond Fed President Alfred Broaddus, speaking in Newport News, Virginia, onTuesday night, called the drop in confidence a "discouraging development." But the dip in confidence had little effect on financial markets because it did not alterexpectations for at least another quarter-point interest rate cut from the FederalReserve at its May 15 meeting. "This report is consistent with continued growth in consumer spending," Shipley said ina research note. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 77.89 points, or 0.74 percent, at10,454.34, while the technology-weighted Nasdaq composite index beaten down byearnings warnings, finished off 42.71 points, or 2.07 percent, at 2,016.61. In latetrading, benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes were 9/32 lower, yielding 5.22percent.

LAYOFF ANNOUNCEMENTS TAKING TOLL
Job market worries amid mounting corporate layoffs -- not stock market jitters --accounted for most of the April fall, said Lynn Franco, director of the ConferenceBoard's Consumer Research Center. Consumers' assessment of their present financial picture were grimmer thanexpectations for the future, she added. "Consumers are rating current conditions less favorably than they have over the lastseveral months, so the economy is still growing at a sluggish pace. And theirexpectations also have weakened," Franco told . The expectations index on the economic outlook for the next six months fell to 78.2 inApril from a downwardly revised 83.1 in March. The drop-off was more severe in thepresent situation index, which tumbled nearly 12 points to 155.6 from an upwardlyrevised 167.5 in March. Franco said the present situation index, which was the lowest since October 1997,was "certainly not near levels that we've seen prior to a recession, but it is a ratherlarge drop and somewhat alarming." Franco added that she doubted the survey's slide would have been stemmed muchhad it been conducted after the Fed's surprise rate cut, given that two half-pointreductions in January failed to cushion a steep drop-off in confidence in February. As long as unemployment continued rising, market analysts said confidence wouldgradually slide, explaining why financial markets had not reacted as strongly to thereport as they had to drops in confidence in previous months. "To the extent that the labor market has started to deteriorate over the last few monthsdecisively, I suspect that that's going to play itself out in gradually falling confidence,"said Stephen Stanley, senior financial economist at Greenwich Capital Markets. The Fed recently shifted its emphasis on sliding consumer confidence as a risk to theeconomy to weakened business confidence and capital spending, and that alsoexplained the market's muted reaction to the data, Stanley said.

RETAIL SALES UP
Consumers, however, remained resilient as retail sales at discount, chain anddepartment stores rose in the first two weeks of April. Warmer weather spurred salesof goods like outdoor furniture and spring clothes. Instinet Research's Redbook Retail Sales Average rose 1.2 percent during the firsttwo weeks compared to the same period in March, with many retailers slightly beatingtheir sales targets. A separate report from the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg showedchain store sales rose 0.4 percent during the week ended April 21, with most storesmeeting sales targets. A third report from International Strategy and Investment Group showed U.S.business activity rose slightly in the latest week, lifted by a pickup in retail sales evenas revenue among home builders, manufacturers and technology companies fell.

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