TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The following lists the range of forecasts given by surveyed economists for key economic indicators to be released this week (compared with previous period data or previous estimate):
JAPAN FEB TERTIARY INDEX, Tuesday (8:50 am):
-- down 0.5-up 1.6 pct mth-on-mth (down 0.5 in Jan; consensus up 0.4)
Merrill Lynch wrote: "Service activities appear to be slowing down. Household spending, commercial sales, selected service industry activity and others suggest a back-to-back month-on-month drop. Its year-on-year growth probably will show a weird rebound, though, due to base effects."
UBS Warburg wrote: "We anticipate a temporary recovery of the index due to a pick up in activity in the retail sector. Weakening demand for IT, however, would likely restrain a rise in communication and wholesale industries."

JAPAN FEB ALL-INDUSTRY INDEX, Tuesday (8:50 am):
-- down 0.2-up 1.6 pct mth-on-mth (down 1.8 in Jan; consensus up 0.7)
HSBC wrote: "Due to weaker business conditions for financial and real estate sectors, the tertiary industry activity index is expected to see a decline of 0.1 pct month-on-month in February. The all-industry activity index, however, is likely to see positive growth, because of February industrial production rising 1.0 pct month-on-month."

JAPAN MARCH LARGE-STORE RETAIL SALES, Thursday (8:50 am):
-- down 0.7-2.5 pct yr-on-yr (down 5.0 in Feb; consensus 2.3) Salomon Smith Barney wrote: "Overall March retail sales likely will see an upturn, reflecting a strong demand ... before the Electric Appliance Recycle Law goes into effect from April 2001. Consumers (will be forced) to share the burden of recycling ... electrical appliances, such as air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators and television sets ... when they dispose of them."

JAPAN MARCH UNEMPLOYMENT, Friday (8:00 am): -- 4.6-4.9 pct (4.7 in Feb; consensus 4.8)
Societe Generale wrote: "The jobless rate is likely to stand at 4.8 pct ... as new graduates who could not find jobs enter the labour market."
UBS Warburg wrote: "Given the recent weakness in industrial production, the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly further."

JAPAN JOB-OFFERS TO SEEKERS, Friday (8:00 am):
-- 0.61-0.65 (0.64 in Feb; consensus 0.63)
Merrill Lynch wrote: "Labor market data likely will show slowly growing negative effects from the cyclical deterioration of economic activity."
HSBC wrote: "The unemployment rate is likely to worsen from February's 4.7 pct to 4.8 pct in March. A rising trend in the unemployment rate should continue. Although the job offers to applicants ratio is expected to remain unchanged at 0.64 in March, further worsening should be inevitable in the near future."

JAPAN MARCH SALARIED HOUSEHOLD SPENDING, Friday (8:00 am):
-- down 1.8-up 6.9 pct yr-on-yr (up 0.9 in Feb; consensus up 1.5) Merrill Lynch wrote: "After the apparently exaggerated strong result in February, worker-household consumption spending was probably flat year-on-year, more than offsetting the February rise on the month. Such an outcome would still put the first quarter average at about 1.6 pct above the fourth quarter."
UBS Warburg wrote: "Strong demand for home electric appliances due to the change in recycling cost sharing is believed to support the expenditure in March. Also, as being reflected in department store sales, demand for non-durable goods seem to be firm temporarily. Two consecutive positive year-on-year growth is possible."
HSBC wrote: "Real spending of salaried workers' households is expected to have risen 0.8 pct year-on-year in March. This is ... just a technical rebound against a deep fall seen in March last year. In addition to little improvement in the employment and income environment, the recent rise in bankruptcies and weakness in stock prices should have negative impacts on consumer sentiment."

TOKYO APRIL CPI, Friday (8:00 am):
-- down 0.7-1.2 pct yr-on-yr (down 0.9 in March; consensus down 0.9)

TOKYO APRIL CORE CPI, Friday (8:00 am):
-- down 0.9-1.3 pct yr-on-yr (down 1.1 in March; consensus down 1.1)
UBS Warburg wrote: "Although prices of perishable food look to remain stable, intensive competition among retailers is likely to put downward pressure on prices continuously. On the core basis, it is anticipated that CPI remains around minus 1 pct year-on-year. In our view, the rise in imported consumer goods prices has not yet put meaningful upward pressure on domestic prices."
HSBC wrote: "The Tokyo area CPI is expected to have declined 0.7 pct year-on-year in April, falling for twenty consecutive months. Due to the economic slowdown, deflationary pressure should be increasing. The core CPI (excluding fresh foods) for Tokyo fell 1.1 pct year-on-year in February and March, the largest post-war drop."

JAPAN MARCH CPI, Friday (8:00 am):
-- down 0.1-0.7 pct yr-on-yr (down 0.1 in Feb; consensus down 0.3)

JAPAN MARCH CORE CPI, Friday (8:00 am):
-- down 0.3-0.9 pct yr-on-yr (down 0.6 in Feb; consensus down 0.6) Merrill Lynch wrote: "The nationwide core CPI is forecast to drop 0.2 pct month-on-month, erasing the up-ticks of the last two months. Such a result would still marginally narrow its year-on-year declines to minus 0.5 pct. Tokyo consumer prices were expected to be stable in April."

JAPAN MARCH INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT, Friday (8:50 am):
-- up 0.4-down 1.7 pct mth-on-mth (up 1.0 in Feb; consensus down 1.0)
-- up 0.4-down 2.8 pct yr-on-yr (up 2.1 in Feb; consensus down 1.4)

Merrill Lynch wrote: "Industrial production is expected to more than give back its February gain. It is likely to come in slightly weaker than METI's 0.8 pct month-on-month-drop forecast, but the relatively firm export volume suggests a limited undershooting. Pay close attention to development of the inventory situation."
UBS Warburg wrote: "Industrial production will likely fall again as the inventory level rose in February and export volume continued to decline. The focus will likely be on the development of the inventory level for electric machinery which rose by 13.2 pct year-on-year in February."
HSBC wrote: "Industrial production is expected to have declined 1.1 pct month-on-month, after a 1.0 pct rise in February. On a year-on-year basis, production should decline 0.8 pct, falling for the second month in a row. The March result is likely to confirm the fact that the production level is trending down."

JAPAN MARCH HOUSING STARTS, Friday (2:00 pm):
-- up 0.5-down 9.3 yr-on-yr (down 5.9 in Feb; consensus down 4.9) Merrill Lynch wrote: "Housing activity has weakened in the last two months. A rebound is expected, but the trend remains sluggish."
HSBC wrote: "Housing starts are likely to see a decline of 4.7 pct year-on-year in March, after a 5.9 pct fall in February. Although the deadline for the cut of the income tax deduction, originally the end of this June, has been postponed by two and a half years, it is inevitable its effect will fade out gradually."