23 April 2001, 17:38  The euro-dollar remained under pressure Monday

NEW YORK (MktNews> - The euro-dollar remained under pressure Monday,after a decline in the west German March IFO survey pointed to dwindlingsentiment among manufacturers, sources said. The Ifo Institute's westGerman business sentiment index dropped for the ninth time in ten monthsin March to 93.9 from 94.9 in February, its lowest level since July 1999.The decline was again below what most analysts expected, setting offrenewed calls for the European Central Bank to lower rates. West Germanbusiness sentiment can be expected to decline further in coming months,according to Gernot Nerb, who heads the Ifo Institute's business sentimentsurvey. "The decline has continued as expected", he said. "The decline inbusiness expectations also indicates that the index has not yet bottomedout," Nerb told Market News in a telephone interview. From a purelyGerman perspective, a rate cut by the European Central Bank would bejustified given the continued decline in west German business sentiment,Nerb said. The euro-dollar was trading at $0.9000 at 9:14 AM EDT, downfrom highs seen near $0.9100, where an Asian name was said to be sellingeuro-dollars to protect an option position. Traders said there was goodbuying interest when the euro-dollar dipped briefly below the $0.9000 area,and they expected support near the $0.8985 to hold. Stop-loss euro-dollarsell orders would be found on a decisive break of $0.8980, they said. OneEuroland trader sees some scope for the euro-dollar to break a bit lower,adding "Nine out of ten people I talk to today are long euro's now, so Iguess it is easy to sell." He said the euro-dollar could decline to $0.8920over the next days and said it would stay there until the ECB meeting onThursday. In Japan, preliminary voting results suggest that reformistcandidate Junichiro Koizumi may be the next president of the LiberalDemocratic Party and thus the next Prime Minister. Koizumi appears to bewinning support among the 47 prefecture chapters, each of which havethree votes. A total of 244 votes out of 487 is needed for a majority.According to analysts at UBS Warburg, Koizumi's popularity has put him in a commanding position ahead of Tuesday's formal vote by partychapter representatives and LDP Diet members. The analysts said, "Themost market-friendly and yen positive, outcome would be a confirmation ofa Koizumi victory and indications that his allies in the LDP will secure keyparty posts." The yen strengthened as Koizumi's lead became clear, thenlater scepticism began to creep back into the market, the analysts said."Fears that Koizumi will have to water down any radical reform measuresin post-election horse trading with the LDP's old guard ultimatelyoverwhelmed reform optimism." However, even a watered-down Koizumivictory involving horse trading would be a better alternative than a Hashimoto victory, the analystssuggest. "The worst-case outcome for the yen would arise if LDP Dietmembers force through a Hashimoto victory in defiance of the grass-rootsvote," they concluded. The dollar-yen was trading at Y121.62 at 9:14 a.m. There islittle on the global agenda for Monday other than a speech at 12:00 PM EDTby ECB chief Otmar Issing on the globalization of financial markets. Recentcomments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill suggest that the U.S.may not be happy with the ECB's isolationist stance with regards to theglobal economy. Traders may look to Issing's comments for any cluesabout any change in sentiment ahead of this Thursday's ECB meeting.

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