2 April 2001, 16:48 * EUR/USD inched its way up from a new 4-month low of 0.8725 to 0.8785.
* EUR/USD inched its way up from a new 4-month low of 0.8725 to 0.8785.
Euro zone March manufacturing PMI data was all on the weak side once
again, but continues to hold above the 50 expansion/contraction level,
unlike its U.S. counterpart. At 50.7, however, Italy PMI is close to dipping into
contraction territory.
Comments from ECB's Issing, Welteke and BBK's Stark all continued the
theme of stubbornness, with various well-know reasons for the steady rates
decision.
Welteke described the EUR as stable, while also warning union IG Metall of
wage restraint. IMF head Koehler said an ECB rate cut would aid growth and
warned that Europe could not be certain growth would outstrip that in the
U.S. this year. He also said the fund would ease its growth forecast for
the euro zone to 2.5%. While none of this had any real immediate effect on
the EUR, it is nonetheless all pretty EUR negative.
The outlook is mixed to slightly negative, with traders looking to
take EUR/USD below 0.8716, December's trough.
Support: 0.8725 (overnight low; 4-month low), 0.8716 (Dec. 13 low),
0.8480 (target of bear flag formed since March 9), 0.8372 (Nov. 23 trough)
0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend).
Resistance: 0.8795 (overnight high), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend),0.8963 (50% Fibonacci
retracement level of the June-Oct. downtrend), 0.8979 (61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level of the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend), 0.8991 (March 27
high), 0.9001 (200-day moving average), 0.9136 (61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.9038 (20-day moving
average), 0.9382 (March 2 peak), 0.9446 (Feb. 1 high), 0.9504 (Jan. 19
high), 0.9595 (Jan. 5 high; 6-month high).
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