2 April 2001, 16:48  * EUR/USD inched its way up from a new 4-month low of 0.8725 to 0.8785.

* EUR/USD inched its way up from a new 4-month low of 0.8725 to 0.8785. Euro zone March manufacturing PMI data was all on the weak side once again, but continues to hold above the 50 expansion/contraction level, unlike its U.S. counterpart. At 50.7, however, Italy PMI is close to dipping into contraction territory.
Comments from ECB's Issing, Welteke and BBK's Stark all continued the theme of stubbornness, with various well-know reasons for the steady rates decision.
Welteke described the EUR as stable, while also warning union IG Metall of wage restraint. IMF head Koehler said an ECB rate cut would aid growth and warned that Europe could not be certain growth would outstrip that in the U.S. this year. He also said the fund would ease its growth forecast for the euro zone to 2.5%. While none of this had any real immediate effect on the EUR, it is nonetheless all pretty EUR negative. The outlook is mixed to slightly negative, with traders looking to take EUR/USD below 0.8716, December's trough.

Support: 0.8725 (overnight low; 4-month low), 0.8716 (Dec. 13 low), 0.8480 (target of bear flag formed since March 9), 0.8372 (Nov. 23 trough) 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend).
Resistance: 0.8795 (overnight high), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend),0.8963 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-Oct. downtrend), 0.8979 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend), 0.8991 (March 27 high), 0.9001 (200-day moving average), 0.9136 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.9038 (20-day moving average), 0.9382 (March 2 peak), 0.9446 (Feb. 1 high), 0.9504 (Jan. 19 high), 0.9595 (Jan. 5 high; 6-month high).

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