Washington, April 18 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit in goods and servicesprobably held close to a record in February as slowing growth around the world causedexports and imports to decline, analysts said in advance of today's government report. The likely trade gap of $33 billion is based on the median of 37 forecasts in a BloombergNews survey after the Commerce Department reported a $33.3 billion deficit in January.In the past five months the deficit has stayed just below the record $33.6 billion reachedin September. ``Export weakness should be concentrated in the capital goods and consumer goodscomponents, which exhibited surprising strength in January,'' according to analysts atStandard & Poor's MMS in Belmont, California. A lower volume of petroleum shipmentsprobably led the import decline in February, MMS said. The government is scheduled toissue the trade statistics at 8:30 a.m. Washington time. Also today, the Conference Board is expected to report that its index of leadingeconomic indicators declined in March for a second consecutive month. The anticipated0.3 percent decline in the index would follow a 0.2 percent drop in February, analystssaid. The index, which is intended to project economic growth over the next half year, isscheduled for release at 10 a.m. Washington time.
Global Slowdown
The slowdown in the U.S. economy has lessened demand for goods produced abroad aswell as those manufactured at home. At the same time, slower growth overseas, as wellas the dollar's strength against the yen and euro, have drained demand for American-made products. In January, imports grew for the first in four months, reflecting increases forsemiconductors and machinery. Exports rose in January for the first time in five months,led by capital goods, the Commerce Department said. For all of 2000, the trade deficit in goods and services set a record of $369 billion,topping the previous record of $265 billion reached in 1999, reflecting a jump in consumerspending in the first half of last year along with the highest volume of oil and gas importsin history. Moreover, the current account deficit -- which tracks trade in goods, services andinvestments -- widened to a record $435 billion last year. The current account isconsidered the broadest measure of international trade because it incorporates financialtransactions.