FRANKFURT (MktNews) - Amid the inexorably mounting pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates soon is a striking incongruity between the market's expectation of a cut at today's Council meeting and recent comments from members of that body that don't support that view. The rub is that the market's conviction about what the ECB should do may be unduly coloring its slant on what the ECB will do -- and when. The impatience with what has been referred to as foot-dragging and even arrogance by the ECB has become loud, but the central bank has thus far not clearly signalled that it is taking this on board. The expectation that the ECB will trim borrowing costs by at least 25 basis points today is overwhelming: 29 of 35 analysts polled in a Market News International survey said this is their base scenario. Speculation that a rate cut is imminent is now much stronger than it was two weeks ago, when the ECB kept rates on hold, thereby dashing the expectations of a sizeable minority of analysts for a cut. Revealingly, however, many analysts participating in the MNI survey hedged their bets that a rate cut will be announced today, conceding that there is a not insignificant probability of an easing move coming at a later date. This is as it should be, given the ECB's mixed signals. Especially after recent comments from ECB officials that appeared to be an attempt to tame the rekindling of rate-cut speculation three weeks ago. Not only did Otmar Issing, the ECB's chief economist, claim that comments he made had been misinterpreted as signalling a near-term move, but President Wim Duisenberg issued a statement March 30 through Bank of Governor Jean-Claude Trichet, an ECB Governing Council member, in which he explained the ECB's current wait-and-see stance. The statement's release the day after a Council meeting was highly unusual, and it seems fair to ask why Duisenberg would do this if he believed there was a strong chance that the Council would decide on a rate cut only two weeks later. That having been said, there is undeniably a strong risk that the ECB could cut rates today. Recent observations from ECB Council members have been so balanced -- reflecting a changed environment -- that they already contain the seeds of a justification of a near-term rate cut. The ECB has thus acknowledged increased downside risks to economic growth, slowing money supply growth and receding inflation risks. A case in point is this week's commentary from ECB Council member Ernst Welteke, who said in the foreword to the Bundesbank's 2000 annual report that he does not see the eurozone's economic weakening resulting in a sharp and sustained downturn and that the ECB's main priority is to contain inflation risks, especially a second-round wage-price spiral. Those remarks are hardly grist for rate-cut speculators' mill, as they suggest that the ECB could keep rates on hold a while longer. Nor is Welteke's comment that he favored a "steady hand" stance on rates. The last comment, however, must be treated with caution. Bundesbank officials have traditionally espoused "eine Politik der ruhigen Hand." But it is questionable whether this is best translated as a "steady hand policy," as the stance implied in no way rules out changes to interest rates when they are needed but, rather, aims to keep moves to a minimum to assure a constancy in the market's inflation and rate expectations. Welteke also played down EMU inflation risks, saying that while HICP averaged more than 2% last year, this was chiefly due to external shocks that the ECB had always said it could not control. In the report, the Bundesbank also said that aside from events in some member states, overall second-round price risks in the eurozone were so far "limited." In sum, a mixed bag from Welteke -- one that both rate-cut fans and more circumspect analysts can dig into to come up with what they want. It is probably only a matter of time before the ECB cuts rates. At some point, it will feel that inflation risks have receded sufficiently and that the downside risks to eurozone economic growth warrant action. Signs of a slowdown keep pouring in, but it is not clear whether a critical mass has yet been reached that will ring ECB alarm bells. The ECB could cut rates today, but it could just as easily wait another two weeks. A consensus for a cut appears to be increasingly within striking distance, but it is not yet a foregone conclusion. There are other reasons why the ECB may wait on a rate cut until the next Council meeting on April 26 -- or even later. By April 26, HICP data for March will have been released. And M3 data for the same month, if not released by then, will in all likelihood be known to the ECB. Both sets of data will probably show a further decline in inflation and money supply growth and could justify a rate cut. There is also the problem, from the ECB's perspective, of mounting pressure on it to act. The ECB clearly does not want to be seen as a slave to political pressure or market expectations -- neither in the broader sense nor with regard to the narrower issue of commercial banks' reticence to bid at this week's refinancing operation due to hopes for an imminent rate cut and thus a cheapening of needed funds. The ECB could elect to postpone an ease in order to teach banks an expensive lesson, as these would then have to make up for the resulting large drain in money market liquidity by refinancing themselves at market rates that would surely spike higher amid the furious scramble. But it's highly questionable whether the ECB will let its monetary policy be swayed by such technical, albeit important, considerations. At the same time, the argument that the ECB will hold off on a rate cut to avoid the impression of caving in to pressure is not convincing. The ECB will no doubt cut rates at some point. The longer it waits, the greater the pressure will become. The argument can be refuted on its own terms because, if anything, this would argue for an immediate rate cut. The ECB will cut rates when it feels it is appropriate to do so. It is not certain that it is ready this week.