7 March 2001, 16:08 US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar/yen hits 20-month high on Japan talk
USD/JPY traders didn't hesitate to take advantage of Japanese officials'
comments overnight and pushed the pair above the psychological 120.00
level.
BOJ Governor Hayami apparently suggested a weaker JPY was a possible
policy tool to boost the Japanese economy. However, he counterbalanced
that by saying that a weaker yen would have a negative impact on other
Asian countries; the BOJ later clarified he was talking purely
theoretically, and not about official policy. Japanese finance minister
Miyazawa added fuel to the fire by saying that while Japan was not
pursuing a weak yen policy, he had no objections to the currency falling
of its own accord.
But the rally to a 20-month high of 120.25 failed to trigger
significant buy-stops so far. It remains to see whether the U.S. traders,
who managed to Northeast, will follow the inconclusive Japanese comments and try lifting
the pair toward 121.00.
Analysts warn that the underlying yen demand remains intact due to
Japanese exporters and foreigners' interest in purchasing Japanese
equities.
The outlook is slightly bullish.
Support: 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 119.15/120.15), 119.00
(38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the August 1998-December 1999
downtrend), 118.60 (overnight low), 118.25 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets:
117.75/118.75), 116.85 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 116.35/117.35),
117.06 (20-day moving average), 115.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets:
115.00/116.00), 116.00 (60-day moving average), 114.56 (Feb. 16 low),
114.35 (Feb. 6 low).
Resistance: 120.25 (overnight high; 20-month high), 121.05 (Gann
50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot;
targets: 122.00/123.00), 122.77 (July 8, 1999, peak), 124.00 (Gann
50-point pivot; targets: 123.50/124.50), 124.75 (May 29, 1999, peak).
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