7 March 2001, 16:04 Forex: Yen continues slump in midday London trade after Hayami remarks
LONDON (AFX) - The yen continued its slump in midday trade,
battered by what the market construed as messages welcoming the
currency's depreciation from both Bank of Japan governor Masaru Hayami
and finance minister Kiichi Miyazawa.
Hayami suggested that a "massive depreciation" of the currency may
be a policy option to tackle deflation while Miyazawa talked of an
"extreme recession" in the country.
"It looks like the Japanese policy makers are prepared to let the
yen go to fight deflation," Kamal Sharma, strategist at Commerzbank
said.
There was some back pedalling after Hayami's remarks but the damage
had been done, he said, adding that the yen looks set for a period of
greater weakness.
"We remain bearish on the yen, with 124 to the dollar looking
possible going by the very weak fundamentals," Sharma said.
Japan is seen sliding into a recession, technically, if as expected
it shows another quarterly fall in GDP.
Amid heightened deflationary pressure, consumers appear to be
caught in a liquidity trap while there is still no sign of a fiscal
stimulus package to restart the economy, Sharma said.
The yen story dominated the market, spilling over to benefit the
euro, which found a stable footing above 0.93 usd after several days of
hovering around that level.
There were no Euro zone data of enough importance to detract from
the yen- led strength.
Hints that the global slowdown is starting to affect the German
economy went by hardly noticed.
German manufacturing orders fell a seasonally adjusted 3.9 pct in
January from December and were up an unadjusted 14.1 pct from a year
earlier. Further, December figures were revised down to a 2.0 pct
monthly increase. The previous estimate was 2.7 pct.
Sterling was steady, even gaining a little on the euro ahead of the
budget set for 3.30 pm UK time.
"Players are sidelined mostly, ahead of the budget," Sharma said.
Adam Chester, economist at Halifax dismissed speculation that
Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown may lower the official 2.5 pct
inflation target.
"There has been no consultation and it will look like political
manipulation of interest rates," Chester said.
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