7 March 2001, 14:05 GERMANY SNAP: JAN MFG ORDERS DROP MORE THAN EXPECTED
--Jan Result: -3.9% m/m (pan); -3.5% m/m (west); -9.3% m/m (east)
--Forecast median: -1.3% m/m (pan)
--Forecast range: -3.2% to +0.5% m/m (pan)
--Dec Result: +2.0% m/m (pan); +1.6% m/m (west); +10.2% m/m (east)
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FRANKFURT (MktNews) - German manufacturing orders in January fell
more than expected, offsetting much of the gains in previous months.
Indeed, the January manufacturing orders index level was the lowest
since September 2000.
January manufacturing orders were expected to decline after the
tax-induced rise in the fourth quarter. But the size of the decline, and
the fact that both domestic and foreign demand dropped sharply, will
raise questions about the pace of German growth in combination with
other recent disappointing German data.
The questions are reinforced by a sharp 6.8% drop in foreign orders
for German manufactured goods in January. Foreign demand should have
been largely unaffected by the longer domestic depreciation periods that
took effect at the end of the year. Thus, the decline could well be the
first indication of the global economic slowdown, which gathered pace
in January.
Domestic orders also fell 1.5% in January after the downwardly
revised 0.4% gain in December (revised from +1.6%).
All major manufacturing orders categories declined in January.
Capital goods led the downward march, down 6.0% m/m. Foreign orders
plunged 9.4% while domestic demand was down 2.1%.
Consumer durable and non-durable goods demand was down 2.8% on the
month, while basic goods orders were down 2.7%. Both domestic and
foreign demand dropped in both categories.
For the two months period of December and January, there was still
a small 0.5% rise compared with the previous two-month period in October
and November. And the level of incoming orders in December/January was
still 10.3% above the level in December/January the year before,
reflecting mainly the very strong first half of 2000.
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