--Jan Result: -3.9% m/m (pan); -3.5% m/m (west); -9.3% m/m (east)
--Forecast median: -1.3% m/m (pan)
--Forecast range: -3.2% to +0.5% m/m (pan)
--Dec Result: +2.0% m/m (pan); +1.6% m/m (west); +10.2% m/m (east)
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FRANKFURT (MktNews) - German manufacturing orders in January fell more than expected, offsetting much of the gains in previous months.
Indeed, the January manufacturing orders index level was the lowest since September 2000.
January manufacturing orders were expected to decline after the tax-induced rise in the fourth quarter. But the size of the decline, and the fact that both domestic and foreign demand dropped sharply, will raise questions about the pace of German growth in combination with other recent disappointing German data.
The questions are reinforced by a sharp 6.8% drop in foreign orders for German manufactured goods in January. Foreign demand should have been largely unaffected by the longer domestic depreciation periods that took effect at the end of the year. Thus, the decline could well be the first indication of the global economic slowdown, which gathered pace in January.
Domestic orders also fell 1.5% in January after the downwardly revised 0.4% gain in December (revised from +1.6%).
All major manufacturing orders categories declined in January.
Capital goods led the downward march, down 6.0% m/m. Foreign orders plunged 9.4% while domestic demand was down 2.1%.
Consumer durable and non-durable goods demand was down 2.8% on the month, while basic goods orders were down 2.7%. Both domestic and foreign demand dropped in both categories.
For the two months period of December and January, there was still a small 0.5% rise compared with the previous two-month period in October and November. And the level of incoming orders in December/January was still 10.3% above the level in December/January the year before, reflecting mainly the very strong first half of 2000.