22 March 2001, 15:23  Downside risks to economic growth in the 12-nation euro area have increased since the end of last ye

FRANKFURT (MktNews) - Downside risks to economic growth in the 12-nation euro area have increased since the end of last year and uncertainty on that score has risen in recent weeks, Otmar Issing, chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), said in an interview. "Risks to growth have certainly increased to the downside since the end of last year," Issing told the Wall Street Journal Europe (WSJE) newspaper in an interview published Thursday. "Over the past few weeks, this tendency has continued and uncertainty has increased," Issing added. While Issing's remarks appeared to indicate a slight softening of the ECB's relatively upbeat assessment of eurozone economic prospects this year, he again suggested that growth should be "robust" in 2001. "Any number close to potential growth for 2001 is for me good news," he said. "It is showing what I call robust growth." Issing would not offer a precise forecast on economic growth, but ECB officials have argued that eurozone GDP will expand this year at a rate not much below 3%. The ECB has defined eurozone economic growth potential as being in a range between 2% and 2.5%. It was not clear whether Issing was implicitly softening the ECB's view on growth. If he was in fact doing so, this could mean that the ECB might not see a need to cut interest rates if growth slows more than it had expected, especially if it remains concerned about inflation risks. Issing played down the impact on Europe of the slowdown in the U.S. and Japan. These developments will hit eurozone growth in a "noticeable but limited way," he said, noting that the euro area is a relatively closed economy that generates only 17% of its output from exports. Issing conceded that the sharp decline in German business sentiment in February and the larger-than-expected fall in eurozone industrial production in January, both reported on Wednesday, were "of course not good news." In particular, the "continuous decline in the Ifo index is a atter of concern," he added. But Issing immediately sought to put those developments into perspective, noting that Germany accounts for only a third of eurozone activity, according to the WSJE. The newspaper also reported that Issing was "heartened" that eurozone consumer confidence is near record levels. As to eurozone price developments, Issing offered a similarly mixed assessment. While the ECB remains concerned about developments, these are in many respects a temporary factor, and risks to price stability in the medium term have become more balanced, he said. "Current developments in inflation are still a matter of concern," Issing said. "But we assess this as a temporary phenomenon," he continued, adding that inflation risks from money supply growth "have more or less receded." The ECB is "much more balanced in our assessment on the future than we have been in the past," Issing said.

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