20 March 2001, 18:35  ZEW MAR EXPERTS SURVEY: GERMANY/EMU ECON. OUTLOOK DROPS AGAIN

FRANKFURT (MktNews) - Sentiment among German financial experts on future economic conditions in both Germany and the eurozone fell for the 14th month in a row in March, indicating a further slowdown in eurozone economic growth ahead, according to the latest survey by the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim.
Experts' economic outlook for both Germany and the eurozone fell further below zero -- in both cases the lowest levels since January 1999. The negative balances indicates that more respondents expect conditions to deteriorate in the period ahead than expect them to improve.
German experts' sentiment on current economic conditions in both Germany and the eurozone also fell for the sixth month in a row in March, though both indexes remained slightly positive, meaning more respondents judge current economic conditions as good than judge them as bad. The German current conditions index was the lowest since January 2000, while the eurozone index was the lowest since December 1999.
The survey of 332 German financial experts at banks, insurance companies and big industrial firms was conducted between March 5 and March 20.
German experts' outlook for the German economy fell 4.3 points to -10.4 in March. The ZEW outlook index for Germany peaked at +89.6 in January 2000.
The balance of sentiment on current business conditions in Germany fell 13.7 points to +10.4 in March. This index peaked at 45.8 in September this year.
Similarly, future economic expectations by German financial experts for the Euroland economy fell 3.0 points to -10.0 in March. Euroland current conditions index declined 9.8 points to +16.1 in March.
In other survey findings, the number of German experts expecting the U.S. dollar to weaken against the euro in the period ahead fell in March, though many more . The balance between those expecting the dollar to rise versus more respondents expect the dollar to fall than to rise in the period ahead (March -67.1, up 9.0 points from Feb.).
In addition, more German experts expected eurozone short-term interest rates to fall in the period ahead, indicating rising sentiment for an ECB rate cut. The balance of sentiment fell 4.4 points to -78.5.
More experts expect German and eurozone consumer prices to decline in the period ahead. The balance of sentiment for German prices fell 3.9 points to -49.6, while that for eurozone inflation fell 3.4 points to -47.3.
The ZEW survey results on German business sentiment have often correlated with the corresponding component indexes of the closely watched Ifo business sentiment index for west Germany, with a lag of one month.
The Ifo Institute is due to release its February west German business sentiment index on Mar. 21 at 09:00 GMT. In ZEW's February survey both German expectations and current conditions fell.

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