20 March 2001, 18:35 ZEW MAR EXPERTS SURVEY: GERMANY/EMU ECON. OUTLOOK DROPS AGAIN
FRANKFURT (MktNews) - Sentiment among German financial experts on
future economic conditions in both Germany and the eurozone fell for the
14th month in a row in March, indicating a further slowdown in eurozone
economic growth ahead, according to the latest survey by the Center for
European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim.
Experts' economic outlook for both Germany and the eurozone fell
further below zero -- in both cases the lowest levels since January
1999. The negative balances indicates that more respondents expect
conditions to deteriorate in the period ahead than expect them to
improve.
German experts' sentiment on current economic conditions in both
Germany and the eurozone also fell for the sixth month in a row in
March, though both indexes remained slightly positive, meaning more
respondents judge current economic conditions as good than judge them as
bad. The German current conditions index was the lowest since January
2000, while the eurozone index was the lowest since December 1999.
The survey of 332 German financial experts at banks, insurance
companies and big industrial firms was conducted between March 5 and
March 20.
German experts' outlook for the German economy fell 4.3 points to
-10.4 in March. The ZEW outlook index for Germany peaked at +89.6 in
January 2000.
The balance of sentiment on current business conditions in Germany
fell 13.7 points to +10.4 in March. This index peaked at 45.8 in
September this year.
Similarly, future economic expectations by German financial experts
for the Euroland economy fell 3.0 points to -10.0 in March. Euroland
current conditions index declined 9.8 points to +16.1 in March.
In other survey findings, the number of German experts expecting
the U.S. dollar to weaken against the euro in the period ahead fell in
March, though many more . The balance between those expecting the dollar
to rise versus more respondents expect the dollar to fall than to rise
in the period ahead (March -67.1, up 9.0 points from Feb.).
In addition, more German experts expected eurozone short-term
interest rates to fall in the period ahead, indicating rising sentiment
for an ECB rate cut. The balance of sentiment fell 4.4 points to -78.5.
More experts expect German and eurozone consumer prices to decline
in the period ahead. The balance of sentiment for German prices fell 3.9
points to -49.6, while that for eurozone inflation fell 3.4 points to
-47.3.
The ZEW survey results on German business sentiment have often
correlated with the corresponding component indexes of the closely
watched Ifo business sentiment index for west Germany, with a lag of one
month.
The Ifo Institute is due to release its February west German
business sentiment index on Mar. 21 at 09:00 GMT. In ZEW's February
survey both German expectations and current conditions fell.
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