20 March 2001, 16:35  ANALYSIS: US JAN TRADE -$33.3B, 'SURPRISE' CLASSIFICATION CHG

--Imports +$0.5B: Cell Phones Reclassified to Capital Goods
--Exports +$0.4B: Includes Reclassified $795m to Mexico
--Country Data: OPEC, Japan Steady; Gap with China -$7.2b vs -$6.1b Dec
--Jan Imports of Energy Related Petroleum 415.5M Bbl, a Record

By Joseph Plocek

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - The U.S. January trade balance came in at -$33.3 billion, with exports up $0.4 billion and imports up $0.5 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.
The data were no surprise when compared with Wall Street expectations for a $33 billion deficit or when compared with a revised deficit of $33.2 billion for December.
However, there were important changes to the data that explain moves in the various categories.
The Commerce Department said December's initial statistics improperly put $795 million in exports to Mexico from paper documents (as opposed to electronic files) into December. These were reassigned to January in the revision. All electronic export shipment records were properly assigned originally. Export categories were corrected, though the Commerce Department did not say which areas were affected.
Among other exports, capital goods were up almost $1 billion, with industrial machines and semiconductors gaining.
January imports included a $1.3 billion jump in consumer goods and an almost offsetting $1.5 billion decline in capital goods, where the telecommunications category fell $1 billion. This reflected the reclassification of cellular telephones from capital to consumer goods, in order to be consistent with other Commerce Department releases. Another classification change put off-road construction trucks into materials handling equipment, as opposed to automobiles. Some foodstuffs were also reclassified within the foods, feeds and beverages category.
Also in the capital goods imports sector, aircraft dropped $0.6 billion and semiconductors were down $0.3 billion.
January imports of energy related petroleum products totaled 415.5 million barrels, a record. The data suggest that crude oil imports were steady, so the imports might have been natural gas used to help solve the utility crisis on the West coast. That would be consistent with the fact that Canada, a major energy supplier, posted a record deficit with the U.S. of $5.8 billion, up from $5.7 billion in December.
In other country breakdowns, the data showed some shifts. The trade deficit with Japan was $5.9 billion versus $6.1 billion in December. The deficit with China was $7.2 billion, compared with $6.1 billion in the prior month. The deficit with OPEC came in at $4.2 billion versus $4.3 billion.
The constant dollar trade balance was -$39.5 billion in January, compared with an average of -$39.6 billion in 4Q. That suggests that the trade sector is a neutral in constructing 1Q GDP.
The Commerce Department is considering converting the constant dollar trade data from a fixed-weight basis to chain-weighting using the Fisher Ideal Formula also utilized in the GDP accounts. Commerce asked data users to submit comments on whether the new approach would be useful.

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