20 March 2001, 16:34 ANALYSIS: US JAN TRADE -$33.3B, 'SURPRISE' CLASSIFICATION CHG
--Imports +$0.5B: Cell Phones Reclassified to Capital Goods
--Exports +$0.4B: Includes Reclassified $795m to Mexico
--Country Data: OPEC, Japan Steady; Gap with China -$7.2b vs -$6.1b Dec
--Jan Imports of Energy Related Petroleum 415.5M Bbl, a Record
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MktNews) - The U.S. January trade balance came in at
-$33.3 billion, with exports up $0.4 billion and imports up $0.5
billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.
The data were no surprise when compared with Wall Street
expectations for a $33 billion deficit or when compared with a revised
deficit of $33.2 billion for December.
However, there were important changes to the data that explain
moves in the various categories.
The Commerce Department said December's initial statistics
improperly put $795 million in exports to Mexico from paper documents
(as opposed to electronic files) into December. These were reassigned
to January in the revision. All electronic export shipment records were
properly assigned originally. Export categories were corrected, though
the Commerce Department did not say which areas were affected.
Among other exports, capital goods were up almost $1 billion, with
industrial machines and semiconductors gaining.
January imports included a $1.3 billion jump in consumer goods and
an almost offsetting $1.5 billion decline in capital goods, where the
telecommunications category fell $1 billion. This reflected the
reclassification of cellular telephones from capital to consumer goods,
in order to be consistent with other Commerce Department releases.
Another classification change put off-road construction trucks into
materials handling equipment, as opposed to automobiles. Some foodstuffs
were also reclassified within the foods, feeds and beverages category.
Also in the capital goods imports sector, aircraft dropped $0.6
billion and semiconductors were down $0.3 billion.
January imports of energy related petroleum products totaled 415.5
million barrels, a record. The data suggest that crude oil imports were
steady, so the imports might have been natural gas used to help solve
the utility crisis on the West coast. That would be consistent with the
fact that Canada, a major energy supplier, posted a record deficit with
the U.S. of $5.8 billion, up from $5.7 billion in December.
In other country breakdowns, the data showed some shifts. The trade
deficit with Japan was $5.9 billion versus $6.1 billion in December.
The deficit with China was $7.2 billion, compared with $6.1 billion
in the prior month. The deficit with OPEC came in at $4.2 billion versus
$4.3 billion.
The constant dollar trade balance was -$39.5 billion in January,
compared with an average of -$39.6 billion in 4Q. That suggests that the
trade sector is a neutral in constructing 1Q GDP.
The Commerce Department is considering converting the constant
dollar trade data from a fixed-weight basis to chain-weighting using the
Fisher Ideal Formula also utilized in the GDP accounts. Commerce asked
data users to submit comments on whether the new approach would be
useful.
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