20 March 2001, 12:44 Italian final fourth quarter 2000 GDP
ROME (MktNews) - Italian final fourth quarter 2000 GDP was
unrevised from preliminary data to post a 0.8% q/q rise, up 2.7% on the
year, but the composition of growth was very different from the
indications given by national statistics institute ISTAT when the
preliminary figures were published on February 15.
Fourth quarter growth was led by exports, which rose 1.4% on the
quarter and contributed +0.5% to the overall +0.8% q/q GDP rise, ISTAT
said today.
Domestic demand contributed just 0.2% -- with contributions of
+0.1% from private consumption, +0.1% from government consumption and a
zero contribution from investments -- while inventory accumulation
contributed +0.1%.
On February 15, ISTAT had given no numerical breakdown of GDP
components, but had said that q/q growth had been "led by domestic
demand," within which "investments were stronger than private
consumption." This is virtually the opposite of the data published
today.
When challenged by reporters on this, the same ISTAT economist
appeared a little embarrassed, and said he didn't remember having made
his remarks on February 15.
The new profile of fourth quarter growth may be seen as rather less
promising for prospects in 2001. Analysts had said earlier indications
of strong domestic demand augured well for the chances of Italian growth
remaining relatively unscathed by the slowdown in the international
economy emerging this year.
The fourth quarter growth profile is broadly in line with the one
seen in the third quarter when, according to ISTAT's originally
published data, growth was again led by net exports.
Fourth quarter private consumption rose 0.2% q/q, +2.5% on the
year; government consumption was up 0.5% q/q and up 1.3% y/y; capital
investment rose 0.1% q/q and 4.0% y/y; exports were up 1.4% q/q and up
11.2% y/y; and imports shed 0.2% q/q and rose 5.6% y/y.
ISTAT also pointed out that the fourth quarter's q/q and
year-on-year results had been hurt by there being three less working
days in the fourth quarter than the third quarter of 2000 and also three
less than in the fourth quarter 1999 (61 vs 64).
ISTAT's GDP data are seasonally but not workday adjusted.
The ISTAT spokesman noted that the fourth quarter's growth gives an
appreciable platform of so-called "acquired" growth of 1.0% going into
the first quarter of 2001. This means that in the hypothesis of zero q/q
growth throughout this year, 2001 GDP would still rise 1.0% over 2000.
This acquired growth stood marginally higher at +1.1% going into
the start of 2000.
The unrevised fourth quarter growth is far above the median
forecast of +0.4% q/q, +2.4% y/y in Market News International's survey
prior to ISTAT's preliminary estimate on February 15.
Again contrary to expectations, the ISTAT economist said there had
been "no marked upward revisions to quarter-on-quarter private
consumption data" in the previous quarters of this year.
He explained that the stronger than expected +2.9% rise in private
consumption in 2000 as a whole, which was published by ISTAT on March 1,
had been the product of "revisions to the profile of past years' data."
According to ISTAT's revisions to back data, third quarter growth
was revised to +0.6% q/q and +2.7% y/y from +0.6% q/q and +2.5% y/y, and
second quarter growth was also revised to +0.2% q/q and +2.9% y/y from
+0.2% and +2.8%.
First quarter growth was revised to +1.1% q/q and +3.3% y/y from
+1.1% and +3.0% year-on-year, while the fourth quarter of 1999 was
revised to +0.8% q/q and +2.7% y/y from +0.6% q/q and +2.2% y/y.
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