20 March 2001, 12:44  Italian final fourth quarter 2000 GDP

ROME (MktNews) - Italian final fourth quarter 2000 GDP was unrevised from preliminary data to post a 0.8% q/q rise, up 2.7% on the year, but the composition of growth was very different from the indications given by national statistics institute ISTAT when the preliminary figures were published on February 15. Fourth quarter growth was led by exports, which rose 1.4% on the quarter and contributed +0.5% to the overall +0.8% q/q GDP rise, ISTAT said today. Domestic demand contributed just 0.2% -- with contributions of +0.1% from private consumption, +0.1% from government consumption and a zero contribution from investments -- while inventory accumulation contributed +0.1%. On February 15, ISTAT had given no numerical breakdown of GDP components, but had said that q/q growth had been "led by domestic demand," within which "investments were stronger than private consumption." This is virtually the opposite of the data published today. When challenged by reporters on this, the same ISTAT economist appeared a little embarrassed, and said he didn't remember having made his remarks on February 15. The new profile of fourth quarter growth may be seen as rather less promising for prospects in 2001. Analysts had said earlier indications of strong domestic demand augured well for the chances of Italian growth remaining relatively unscathed by the slowdown in the international economy emerging this year. The fourth quarter growth profile is broadly in line with the one seen in the third quarter when, according to ISTAT's originally published data, growth was again led by net exports. Fourth quarter private consumption rose 0.2% q/q, +2.5% on the year; government consumption was up 0.5% q/q and up 1.3% y/y; capital investment rose 0.1% q/q and 4.0% y/y; exports were up 1.4% q/q and up 11.2% y/y; and imports shed 0.2% q/q and rose 5.6% y/y. ISTAT also pointed out that the fourth quarter's q/q and year-on-year results had been hurt by there being three less working days in the fourth quarter than the third quarter of 2000 and also three less than in the fourth quarter 1999 (61 vs 64). ISTAT's GDP data are seasonally but not workday adjusted. The ISTAT spokesman noted that the fourth quarter's growth gives an appreciable platform of so-called "acquired" growth of 1.0% going into the first quarter of 2001. This means that in the hypothesis of zero q/q growth throughout this year, 2001 GDP would still rise 1.0% over 2000. This acquired growth stood marginally higher at +1.1% going into the start of 2000. The unrevised fourth quarter growth is far above the median forecast of +0.4% q/q, +2.4% y/y in Market News International's survey prior to ISTAT's preliminary estimate on February 15. Again contrary to expectations, the ISTAT economist said there had been "no marked upward revisions to quarter-on-quarter private consumption data" in the previous quarters of this year. He explained that the stronger than expected +2.9% rise in private consumption in 2000 as a whole, which was published by ISTAT on March 1, had been the product of "revisions to the profile of past years' data." According to ISTAT's revisions to back data, third quarter growth was revised to +0.6% q/q and +2.7% y/y from +0.6% q/q and +2.5% y/y, and second quarter growth was also revised to +0.2% q/q and +2.9% y/y from +0.2% and +2.8%. First quarter growth was revised to +1.1% q/q and +3.3% y/y from +1.1% and +3.0% year-on-year, while the fourth quarter of 1999 was revised to +0.8% q/q and +2.7% y/y from +0.6% q/q and +2.2% y/y.

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