20 March 2001, 09:52  SCHROEDER STILL UPBEAT ON GERMAN 2001 GDP GROWTH

BERLIN (MktNews) - German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder Sunday reiterated that heexpects German growth to range between 2.6-2.9% this year, despite the decision by anumber of Germany's leading economic research institutes to revise down their 2001 growthforecasts. "Despite mounting uncertainties, in particular due to the economic slowdown in the UnitedStates and in Japan and the weaker start in 2001, I consider German Finance Minister (HansEichel's) 2001 growth forecast (of between 2.625% and 2.875%) to be attainable,"Schroeder said in an interview with Germany's weekly Welt am Sonntag. The German federal government is officially forecasting GDP growth of +2.75% this year.However, Finance Minister Eichel repeatedly said last week that this forecast is based on agrowth range of 2.625% to 2.875%, and that growth this year would likely come in at thelower end of this range. The HWWA economic research institute last week was the latest think tank to revise downits German growth forecast, reducing its 2001 GDP projection to 2.3% from 2.7%. Thatrevision follows similar moves by the Kiel institute, the DIW institute and by Ifo. Kiel cut itsforecast to 2.1% from 2.4%, Ifo to 2.4% from 2.5% and DIW to 2.1% from 2.5%. The institutes' downward revisions of growth forecasts for the eurozone's largest economycould add pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates. However, theECB still expects growth for the eurozone as a whole to remain robust at "around 3%." TheGerman government's growth forecast is a lagging indicator. Schroeder said that "most economic and growth indicators point to a continued positivedevelopment, although at a slightly slower pace than a year ago." "The economic upswing in Germany rests on a solid base," he was quoted as saying.Schroeder cited a survey by the German Chambers of Industry and Trade (DIHT) as thereason for his positive outlook. Most survey respondents expect the economic upswing togain in breadth thanks to buoyant investment spending. Separately, Eichel, in an interview with the newsmagazine Der Spiegel, cautioned againstexcessively pessimistic growth expectations and signaled that he is not ready to revise downthe official forecast. However, Eichel did tell Spiegel that "even if we only reach growth of 2.0% this year, "that ismore what we had on average in the 1990s". Rolf Peffekoven, a former member of the German government's council of independenteconomic advisers, also said over the weekend that he expects growth to rise by between2.3% and 2.5% this year, the news magazine Focus said.

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