NEW YORK (MktNews) - Primary dealers polled by MarketNews Internationalare split, with 14 out of 25 forecasting the U.S. Federal Reserve will ease its federalfunds target rate by 50 basis points Tuesday, while the rest look for a 75 basis pointcut, economists said. The majority of those polled in the survey - 20 out of 25 - say the Fed will ease againat its May 15 meeting, with one, Nomura Securities, forecasting an intermeetingmove following Tuesday's decision and another expecting the Fed to wait until June. With the current fed funds rate at 5.50%, the April federal funds contract currentlyprices in a 70% probability for a 75 basis point ease and a 100% probability for a50% cut. Overall, an overwhelming number of economists expressed trepidation when givingtheir forecasts given the muddy waters through which the U.S. economy is currentlywading. Many economists went so far as to say they are not "confident" in theirprojections. Additionally, even within the same organizations, forecasts differ. While Merrill LynchGovernment Securities, which is a primary dealer, expects a 50 basis point ease,Merrill Lynch & Co. Global Securities Research & Economics Groups has put itsofficial forecast at a 75 basis point ease. The Fed could be in a proverbial pickle when it meets next Tuesday as economicindicators justify a more moderate easing of monetary policy while the most recentequity spiral points to bolder measures, economists say. "There's a decent chance they'll go 75," said BNP Paribas economist Eric Green,"but I still think they'll tread softly" with 50 basis points. Most economists in the 50 basis points camp insist that deterioration inmacroeconomic indicators such as manufacturing, consumer confidence, industrialproduction - among others - justifies a more modest easing. And, recent statementsfrom FOMC members indicate the central bank will make a more conservativedecision Tuesday. Lehman Brothers chief economist Steven Slifer said he's "hoping for a 75 basispoint" ease and believes the Fed should make such a bold move, but has put hisofficial forecast at a target of 5.00% given recent upbeat comments by FOMCofficials. However, the big "but" in the equation is the sliding U.S. equity market. Someeconomists argue that it threatens already shaky consumer and business confidence,a factor the 75 basis point camp says is too weighty to ignore. The Dow and the Nasdaq sell off last week pushed the indices below the 10,000and 1,900, respectively. Fed watchers insist that Chairman Alan Greenspan and company do not and will nottarget equity valuations, but the FOMC is concerned that the massive negative wealtheffect resulting from the bloodbath in both the Dow Jones and Nasdaq could furtherundermine a much hoped for rebound in growth later this year. "The massive negative wealth effect here might complicate a recovery in the secondhalf" of the year, said Banc One Capital Markets economist Anthony Karydakis."We're not in a recession, but the question is where do we go from here?" "There's just not a whole lot to cheer about," Karydakis said, adding that the stockmarket is a key factor in the economic comeback. Additionally, there's fear the fallout from depressed stocks will spillover intoeconomic data, said Morgan Stanley economist David Greenlaw. Other economists said that rapidly deteriorating economic indicators, such asweaker-than-expected industrial production, already provide enough evidence for adeeper cut in the federal funds target. U.S. industrial production dropped below expectations by 0.6% in February fromthe previous month while capacity utilization fell 0.7% to 79.4% from January's80.1%. No matter the outcome, Tuesday's FOMC meeting promises to commandeveryone's attention. "In this environment you should always expect surprises from the Fed, and I don'tmean less," said JP Morgan/Chase Securities economist Jim Glassman. Bear Stearns economist John Ryding calls the upcoming FOMC session a "show memeeting" where the Fed's decision on rates will prove pivotal moment in how marketsinterpret the central bank's monetary policy in the future. "This is a defining moment for the Fed," said Ryding who expects a 75 basis pointease, but as with the rest of his peers, acknowledges that it will be a close call.