19 March 2001, 19:05 U OF MICH'S CURTIN:CONFIDENCE TO FALL IF STOCKS CONTINUE DROP
WASHINGTON (MktNews) - If the stock market keeps falling, consumer
confidence might be in trouble, the director of the University of
Michigan's Survey Research Center tells Market News International.
Richard Curtin is the director of SRC, the largest of three centers
of the University's Institute for Social Research which produces
measures of consumer sentiment that date to its inception in 1946.
The survey involves the collection and analysis of data from
scientific sample surveys, and is meant to gauge the importance of
individuals' spending and saving decisions for the U.S. economy.
The center's preliminary measure of consumer sentiment was reported
Friday to be at an index number of 91.8 for March, up from 90.6 in
February. Given the fact that the survey was based on only a fraction of
the minimum of 500 interviews that are repeated each month, there was
speculation about whether the recent stock market gyrations were fully
captured in the report.
The preliminary report was sound technique, Curtin said. "It is of
course true that all of the responses to the stock declines were
captured" in the recent data. But it is possible on-going stock
price declines will have some further effect on the figure.
"If the stock market keeps falling so too will consumer
confidence," Curtin added.
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