13 March 2001, 12:35  Europe FX Opening: Summary of overnight moves and what's ahead

By Bridge News
London--March 13--The following is a summary of overnight moves since Europe's close, plus possible leaders for the session ahead:
KEY ISSUES:

* FX takes back seat as equity market turmoil remains the focus
* US retail sales may decide equity/FX bias for rest of week

FX takes back seat amid equity turmoil
London--0735 GMT--March 13 Tel: +44-20-7842-4185
FX markets continue to take a back seat amid global equity market turmoil.
Major currencies have remained in familiar narrow ranges overnight, surprising some as large losses on the Nikkei, which followed US stocks lower failed to push the JPY lower. The Nikkei shed 2.89% or 352 pts to its lowest level since 1985. The move followed triple digit losses for the 2nd consecutive day on Wall Street, with the Nasdaq down 6.3% or 128 pts to its lowest level since 1998. In turn the Dow was pulled down 436 pts or 4.1% and S&Ps lost 4.3%, bringing the losses in the broader market to over 20% since last year's peak, in line with what some define as a bear market there. US Treasuries have pushed higher--though not in a major way--in a mini flight to quality.
--USD/JPY and EUR/JPY have seen most action, though the JPY has pushed higher against both. Asia reports continued strong offers in the 120.60-80 area, said to be option related ahead of 121.00 barriers and some JPY repatriation from Nikkei losses as aiding the JPY. Many speculators, however, continue to look for more JPY weakness in the sessions ahead after the overhang of short positions is unwound. US and Japanese names pressed USD/JPY off its 120.62 Asian high, with talk of a 120.50 option strike also noted.
--EUR/JPY slipped from 112.10 to 111.30. Japan PM Mori said he would set up a new Emergency Economic Policy Headquarters in the Cabinet Office, designed to implement Friday's emergency package quickly (story . 10943 ). Chief cabinet Secretary Fukuda said the economy is not in a deflationary spiral but could enter one if not careful (story . 23368 ) In an interview with BridgeNews ex-MOF's Nakahira expressed his skepticism for any further monetary or fiscal stimulus, arguing for the govt to take measures to boost consumer sentiment (story . 12838 ).
--EUR/USD remains trapped within a 0.9250-0.9380 range, though could not manage to get above 0.9302 overnight, despite US stock market turmoil. Many specs are disappointed by its performance and are eying a break below 0.9250 back towards 0.9000. Monday saw data from IMM specs, who all but doubled EUR longs, increasing the downside possibilities. Eurosystem and EY sources told BridgeNews that Duisenberg has been privately saying growth in the euro zone could ease to 2.6% this year, more in line with theplethora of private sector downward revisions of late. German Jan trade andcurrent account data is out, as is final Feb CPI. France also releases final CPI,while Dutch Jan retail sales is also out. The main focus will be US retail sales, with a BridgeNews survey looking for a 0.4% monthly increase, following a 0.7% increase in Jan.
Key will be how equities take this number. While a strong number might mean that following the jobs data, things might be picking up slowly, it could add to fears of what the Fed will (or will not do) on March 20. Fed's Meyer speaks at 1900 GMT.
--GBP held a tight 1.4633-47 range, the cross 0.6332-45 range. No UK data.

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