13 March 2001, 11:47  The Handelsblatt eurozone leading economic indicator

FRANKFURT (MktNews) - The Handelsblatt eurozone leadingeconomic indicator was unchanged in March, after having fallingthe five previous months, signalling that Europe's economicslowdown may bottom out in mid-year, the German businessdaily said Monday. The March indicator stabilized at a level of2.9%, but is still 0.8 percentage points below its recent peak of3.7% reached last September. Handelsblatt's Germanyindicator, published last week, also stabilized after falling fourtimes in a row. Ahead, the indicator signals a slowing of theannual growth rate to 3.3% in the first quarter and to 3.0% in thesecond quarter, the newspaper wrote. "The indicator's recentstabilization signals that the (economy's) low point may bepassed by mid-year," the Handelsblatt said. "However, this willdepend on further developments in the global economy, and theoutlook for the United States remains uncertain." Handelblattargued that the data supported a near-term ECB rate cut. "Thelong time lag of about one year between montary policymeasures and their impact on the real economy suggest thatthe time for an interest rate cut has come," the Handelsblattsaid. The creator of the index, Ulrich van Suntum, argued for arate cut in an interview with Market News published last Friday,and suggested that slowing monetary growth could limiteconomic growth. Among components of the index, bothindustrial and consumer confidence indicators of the EUComission deteriorated, but monetary and other data providedpositive signals. The industrial confidence and the consumerconfidence, which together have a weight of 50% in the index,continued to deteriorate in February. Nevertheless the level ofindustrial confidence is still positive (+1 point) and historicallyrelatively high (average -8 points). The latest fall was mainlydue to lower production expectations, whereas new ordersremained stable. Also, at -2, consumer confidence remainsabove its long time average of -13 points, the paper said. TheFebruary confidence decline was entirely due to a moreskeptical view in regard to the overall economic situation,whereas the expectations concerning the personal situationeven improved. The industrial production continued to developdynamically and increased 1.3% in December m/m and was 8%up y/y. M2 money supply growth, another subcomponent stoodat only 2.4% in January, after 3.7% in the previous months. Thuscurrent monetary growth is just high enough to finance risingprices and leaves hardly any leeway for real economic growth,the Handelblatt said. The interest rate differential, anothercomponent of the index, was virtually unchanged, rising from0.2 to 0.3 percentage point.

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