28 February 2001, 16:33 US GDP-OVERVIEW
--US Q4 GDP at +1.1% revised from +1.4%
--US Q4 real final sales revised to +1.5% vs +1.6%
--US Q4 final sales to domestic buyers unrevised at +2.1%
--US net inventories subtract 0.5 pt; revised from -0.2 pt
--US Q4 consumer spending revised to +2.8% vs +2.9%
--US Q4 government spending revised to +2.7% vs +2.9%
--US net exports subtracted unrevised 0.6 point from GDP
--US Q4 capital spending at -0.6% revised vs -1.5%
--US Q4 GDP PCE price index revised to +1.9% vs +2.2%
--US Q4 core GDP PCE price index revised to +1.6% from +2.0%
--Q4 GDP price deflator revised to +1.9% from +2.1%
--US Q4 GDP growth lowest since +0.8% in Q2 1995
By Andrew Williams, BridgeNews
Washington--Feb. 28--A reduction in inventory investment left growth
in U.S. gross domestic product at an annual rate of just 1.1% in the
fourth quarter, three tenths of a percentage point beneath the earlier
government estimate. The revised GDP figure marks the slowest U.S.
economic growth since the second quarter 1995 and is only half the 2.2%
growth rate in the third quarter. Analysts were expecting fourth quarter
growth to be revised to 1.0%.
* * *
The U.S. Department of Commerce attributed the revision in
fourth-quarter GDP to a downward revision in inventory investment "mainly
reflecting newly available...inventory data for December and revised data
for November."
Real final sales--gross domestic product excluding inventory
investment--grew at a revised 1.5% rate in the fourth quarter, previously
reported up 1.6%. Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew at an
unrevised 2.1% pace.
The report contained some good news regarding inflation: the GDP price
deflator rose at a 1.9% pace in the fourth quarter, previously reported up
2.1%. Similarly, the consumer spending price index rose at a 1.9% pace,
versus the 2.2% reported previously, while the core consumer spending
price index was up 1.6% versus the previous 2.0% rise.
INVENTORIES, SPENDING AND TRADE DETAILS
--Total inventories, subtracted a revised 0.5 percentage point from
GDP, previously reported as reducing growth by just 0.2 percentage point.
--Consumer spending, which accounts for around two-thirds of output,
rose at an revised annual rate of 2.8%, after being reported up 2.9% in
the advance report.
--Government spending rose a revised 2.7%, compared with 2.9% rise
when last reported. Federal government spending rose 3.7%, compared with
the 4.6% increase previously reported, as defense spending was revised
downward.
--Capital spending, the hallmark of the economic boom, fell only
0.6%--compared with the 1.5% decline reported last month. Business
spending on equipment and software fell at an annual rate of 3.5%, less
severe than the 4.7% drop previously reported.
--Net exports of goods and services subtracted an unrevised 0.6
percentage point from GDP growth. "Both imports and exports of goods and
services were revised down, mainly reflecting...newly available...data on
shipments for December, revised shipments data for November and newly
available aircraft imports data for December," Commerce said.
WHAT WAS EXPECTED
The BridgeNews survey of economists' estimates for the revised GDP
figure ranged from up 0.6% to up 1.4%, while estimates for the price
deflator range from 2.1% to 2.2%. The final sales projections ranged from
up 1.3% to up _ 1.9%. End
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