2 February 2001, 11:49 Morgan Stanley's Wien Says Economic Turnaround Won't Come Soon
New York, Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- In the stock market, ``anything that's embracedby too many people isn't going to work out,'' says Byron Wien.
The idea that's too common right now, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co.'schief U.S. strategist says, is that profits and the U.S. economy will recover bythis year's second half, helped by lower interest rates.
``It will take longer than that,'' Wien said in an interview in his Times Squareoffice. The economy will take time to shed the ''excesses'' of debt and spendingthat have accompanied a decade- long economic expansion, he said.
Investors have pushed the Nasdaq Composite Index up 12 percent and theStandard & Poor's 500 Index up 3.2 percent this year, betting that FederalReserve rate cuts will spur growth and boost corporate earnings later in the year.
The Fed cut rates by half a percentage point yesterday, following another half-point cut on Jan. 3. Investors expect the central bank to cut rates further to spurthe economy, which grew at a 1.4 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, theslowest in 5 1/2 years.
Many stocks have rallied this year in the face of bad news about the slowingeconomy, showing that investors are optimistic about a quick turnaround, Wiensaid. He cited semiconductor equipment companies and automakers asexamples.
Applied Materials Inc., the No. 1 maker of semiconductor equipment, hasclimbed 44 percent from its Dec. 21 low. The company said yesterday that profitand sales in its fiscal first quarter, which ended Jan. 28, missed already-reducedforecasts.
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