16 February 2001, 18:07 GERMANY PRESS: FULL TEXT OF O'NEILL INTERVIEW IN FAZ
--No Strong Currency Without Strong Economy
--Hopes US Economy Is Correcting Softly
--Jan. Fed Rate Cuts "Very Useful" Given Circumstances
--US Tax Cuts Needed Soon
--Not Sure US Rebound Signs Coming Soon
--May Face "Some Time" With Growth Close To Zero
--Markets Getting Better At Factoring Future Into Evaluations
--$5.6 Trillion In Surpluses In Next 10 Years "Conservative Forecast"
--Should Be No Intervention In Markets, But There Are Exceptions
FRANKFURT (MktNews) - The following is the full text of U.S.
Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill's interview in the Friday edition of the
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. The interview was translated from German
by Market News International.
Q: Secretary O'Neill, the American economy has clearly weakened in
recent months. What must happen to revitalize the economy?
O'Neill: It's true that growth is currently much weaker than in the
past five, six years. I hope that we are in a soft correction phase of
the economic cycle. Alan Greenspan, the governor of the Federal Reserve
Bank, has already cut interest rates twice, each time by 50 basis
points. Under the current circumstances I believe this was very useful.
I have told the members of Congress, that we must now quickly pass the
tax reform, so that citizens can keep more money in their pockets and
payback their credit card debts. I'm not quite clear on whether we will
soon see the first signs of an economic recovery or whether we will have
to accept growth rates close to zero for some time.
Q: Are monetary and fiscal policy suitable for fine-tuning the
economy?
O'Neill: It takes a while before monetary and fiscal policy
impulses show up in the real economy. But the markets keep getting
better at including the future in their daily evaluation (of the
situation). The market's reaction to the Fed's rate cuts was impressive
proof of this ability: The interest rate cut also showed up in forwards
for bonds. At the moment, data even show that market participants are
expecting further interest rate cuts. That's good for the economy.
Q: The tax cuts planned by President George Bush and yourself are
based on the assumption that there will be a surpluses totalling $5.6
trillion in the next 10 years. How reliable are such long-term
forecasts?
O'Neill: The forecasts are conservative and as good as they can be
given all the uncertainty. The tax cuts of about $1.6 billion can be
financed without threatening that part of the surplus that is earmarked
for social security pension payments. And then we will still have about
$1.5 trillion left over. I cannot remember every having been in such a
comfortable position. One thing, however, is true: We have to maintain
discipline and cannot launch into huge new spending programs.
Q: You want to reduce government debt further at the same time.
What happens when there is no more debt, but the surpluses continue.
Will the government then start investing in private assets, for example
in shares?
O'Neill: That's a terrible thing to imagine. In a capitalist system
like ours it is not the government's job to own companies? Should we buy
an aluminum forge or a chain of food stores? That doesn't make sense.
Q: Some economists are advising you to stimulate the economy
through exports. Would a weaker dollar be useful for America?
O'Neill: That's a crazy idea that could only be conceived by
nationalist economists. Such thoughts come from the past, they are no
good for the future. We also do not follow, as has often been said, a
policy of a strong dollar. In my opinion, a strong dollar is the result
of a strong economy. But I have not yet found anyone who did not want
high growth rates, low inflation and low unemployment. When these three
things come together, that's often reflected in the exchange rate.
Without a strong economy there is no strong currency, this is true for
the dollar as much as for the yen or the D-mark.
Q: Does this mean the economy in the euro area is weak?
O'Neill: I don't understand all this talk about the weak euro. Who
can maintain with certainty what the 'right' euro-dollar exchange rate
is? What's the yardstick? At what level would the euro be strong? A
long time ago, I once thought that the price of a certain good should
be different to what it actually was. At the time, a smart, older friend
of mine gave me the following advice: 'If you want to know what the
right price is, just go over to the (trading) screen and look at the
price.
Q: Does this mean that intervention on the foreign exchange market,
like that carried out by the European Central Bank in the autumn -- once
even supported by the Treasury and the Fed -- is pointless?
O'Neill: On intervention I want to say only this: In principle,
there should be no intervention in market processes. But there can be
exceptions. There is no point in talking about it too much.
Q: The most recent financial crises in Asia and Latin American and
the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) intervention with large loans
have fanned a debate about reforming the Bretton Woods Institutions IMF
and World Bank. What is the view of the U.S. administration in this
matter?
O'Neill: A number of studies have been carried out on the IMF and
World Bank. My observation is, that both institutions are moving. In
future however one thing must be clear -- particularly in view of the
rescue packages: It is a principle of capitalism that people take hold
of their money and decide freely where they will invest it. For this,
they receive a certain sum, depending on the risk involved, that is
greater than their capital costs. If someone removes the risk of
suffering losses, then that has nothing to do with capitalism. Everyone
who makes their own free investment decision has the right to fail. In
future it will also be important to make clear to countries that
threaten to run into difficulties that the rest of the world will not be
prepared to help them. But my impression is that the IMF has understood
this.
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