16 February 2001, 14:08 Leading indicator of the UK economy
LONDON (MktNews) - A leading indicator of the UK economy has risen
for a third month running in January, pointing to a possible upturn in
the second half of the year, NTC research reported Friday.
The NTC leading indicator posted 100.05 in January, up from 99.48
in December 2000 and 99.14 in November.
It said the indicator signalled a rate of economic growth
"marginally above" the long-term trend level towards the beginning
of Q4.
It said the rise above 100 in the indicator largely reflected a
strong rise in new car registrations, expectations of lower future
interest rates, and a significant rise in the unfilled job centre
vacancies.
It noted that consumer confidence also provided a positive
contribution to the indicator for the first time in 10 months.
The coincident indicator, which monitors the current position of
the business cycle, fell for eleven months in a row in December, to
100.6 from 101.1 in November. NTC said this signalled a rate of economic
growth just slightly above the long-term trend level, and the weakest
since December 1998.
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