16 February 2001, 14:08  Leading indicator of the UK economy

LONDON (MktNews) - A leading indicator of the UK economy has risen for a third month running in January, pointing to a possible upturn in the second half of the year, NTC research reported Friday. The NTC leading indicator posted 100.05 in January, up from 99.48 in December 2000 and 99.14 in November. It said the indicator signalled a rate of economic growth "marginally above" the long-term trend level towards the beginning of Q4. It said the rise above 100 in the indicator largely reflected a strong rise in new car registrations, expectations of lower future interest rates, and a significant rise in the unfilled job centre vacancies. It noted that consumer confidence also provided a positive contribution to the indicator for the first time in 10 months. The coincident indicator, which monitors the current position of the business cycle, fell for eleven months in a row in December, to 100.6 from 101.1 in November. NTC said this signalled a rate of economic growth just slightly above the long-term trend level, and the weakest since December 1998.

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