Germany reported a surprise 0.8% month-on-month fall in retail sales for December.
Analysts had been expecting a 0.5% month-on-month rise. The bad news was worsened by expectations of a healthy 0.5% month-on-month rebound in U.S. January retail sales at 1330 GMT, and by a smaller-than-expected German trade surplus of 2.1 billion DEM in December. EUR/USD eventually found support, however, from talk of reserves-related bids from the BBK around 0.9260-65 and vague rumors the ECB might soon have some interest income to repatriate from Treasury coupon payments due Feb. 15. Also of note, but having little impact, Spanish EU-harmonized CPI retreated to 3.8% year-on-year in January from 4.0% year-on-year in December. The outlook is slightly bearish.

Support: 0.9258 (overnight low), 0.9136 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.9132 (Feb. 9 low), 0.9115 (Jan. 25 low; three-week low), 0.9039 (200-day moving average), 0.8979 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend).
Resistance: 0.9306 (20-day moving average), 0.9332 (overnight high), 0.9446 (Feb. 1 high), 0.9504 (Jan. 19 high), 0.9595 (Jan. 5 high; 6-month high), 0.9621 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the Jan 1998-Oct 2000 downtrend), 0.9693 (June 19 peak), 0.9702 (June 8 peak), 0.9795 (March 2 high).