1 February 2001, 13:54  ECB Likely to Leave Rates Unchanged Today, Analysts Say

Frankfurt, Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank will probablyleave interest rates unchanged today as officials await further evidence ofslowing inflation and growth in the euro region before lowering borrowingcosts. While 19 of the 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast arate cut in the first half of this year, none expect the ECB to lower itsbenchmark refinancing rate from 4.75 percent this month. Eight said thecentral bank will reduce the 14-day rate, the lowest amount that can becharged to commercial banks, by the end of March. ``The ECB has made it clear that nobody should expect a rate cut withinthe next few weeks,'' said Eckhard Schulte, an economist at DresdnerBank AG in Frankfurt. ECB officials damped expectations in recent days that slower growthworldwide would prompt the central bank to track the Federal Reserve,which surprised markets on Jan. 3 with a 50 basis- point cut to itsbenchmark federal funds rate to 6 percent. Fed policy makers reduced their benchmark interest rate by another 50basis points Wednesday as the risk of a U.S. recession intensified. Thedecision followed a Conference Board report Tuesday that its index ofconsumer confidence fell in January to the lowest level in four years andrecorded a larger decline than in any month since the 1990-91 recession. Futures contracts show investors expect the ECB to lower rates by theend of the first half of the year, with the implied yield on the contract forJune delivery trading at 4.3 percent before the Fed announcement, 43basis points below the current three-month Euribor rate. Slowing inflation in the 12-nation euro zone, along with slowing growthworldwide, has nurtured hopes for a rate cut following seven straightincreases between November 1999 and October 2000.

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