9 January 2001, 16:40 US FX Daily Outlook: Euro/dollar lower on continued profit-taking - part3
* USD/JPY slipped to a 4-day low of 115.60 but remained comfortably within
Friday's range of 115.50 to 116.91. The key level on the downside remains
115.50 Gann 50-point pivot, which targets 115.00 and 116.00.
Overnight, the pair failed to react to comments from Japanese Vice fin
min for International Affairs Haruhiko Kuroda, who said the EUR should
continue to strengthen versus the JPY and the USD. Kuroda also said he is
confident that Japan can achieve its GDP growth target of 1.7% in fiscal
2001-02 (April-March).
USD/JPY paid little attention to former Fed Vice Chair Alice Rivlin
who said the Fed "almost certainly" will cut rates at its policy meeting
Jan. 30-31. The pair also was indifferent to continued losses in the
Nikkei. The index ended the session 257.10 points down.
Japanese data came in mostly on the weak side:
* Japan's November real household spending fell 1.3% for the year.
* November consumption spending came in 3.0% lower for the year.
* November department store sales came in 2.0% lower.
Talk of Kampo bids at 115.70 supported. Next support is at 115.50,
Gann 50-point pivot.
The outlook is slightly bearish.
Support: 115.60 (overnight low), 115.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets:
115.00/116.00), 114.20 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 113.70/114.70),
113.53 (20-day moving average), 112.90 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets:
112.40/113.40), 111.60 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 111.10/112.10).
Resistance: 116.26 (overnight high), 116.85 (Gann 50-point pivot;
targets: 116.35/117.35), 116.91 (Jan. 5 high; 17 1/2-month high), 117.35
(upside target of 116.85 Gann 50-point pivot), 117.40 (July 27, 1999,
high), 118.25 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 117.75/118.75), 119.00 (38.2%
Fibonacci retracement level of the August 1998-December 1999 downtrend).
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