9 January 2001, 16:39  US FX Daily Outlook: Euro/dollar lower on continued profit-taking - part2

* EUR/USD sank to a 5-day low of 0.9386 on profit taking in Europe as the pair pierced rumored Chinese bids near 0.9400. Earlier, rumors of reserves-related bids from the BBK sent the pair to a session high of 0.9478. Generally supportive euro zone econ data failed to help the EUR much. Euro-zone PPI rose 0.2% m/m in Nov, less than the 0.4% m/m as was reported Friday. Euro-zone retail sales came in up 1.0% on the year to Oct. Germany saw a 27,000 fall in seasonally-adjusted unemployment for December. The marginal refi rate at this week's ECB variable refi tender eased to 4.75%. The outlook is bearish. Support: 0.9386 (overnight low), 0.9250 (support line rising since Nov. 27), 0.9037 (200-day moving average), 0.8979 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend), 0.8835 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend). Resistance: 0.9478 (overnight high), 0.9595 (Jan. 5 high; 6-month high), 0.9621 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the Jan 1998-Oct 2000 downtrend), 0.9693 (June 19 peak), 0.9702 (June 8 peak), 0.9795 (March 2 high).

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