9 January 2001, 16:39 US FX Daily Outlook: Euro/dollar lower on continued profit-taking - part2
* EUR/USD sank to a 5-day low of 0.9386 on profit taking in Europe as the
pair pierced rumored Chinese bids near 0.9400. Earlier, rumors of
reserves-related bids from the BBK sent the pair to a session high of
0.9478.
Generally supportive euro zone econ data failed to help the EUR much.
Euro-zone PPI rose 0.2% m/m in Nov, less than the 0.4% m/m as was reported
Friday. Euro-zone retail sales came in up 1.0% on the year to Oct. Germany
saw a 27,000 fall in seasonally-adjusted unemployment for December. The
marginal refi rate at this week's ECB variable refi tender eased to 4.75%.
The outlook is bearish.
Support: 0.9386 (overnight low), 0.9250 (support line rising since
Nov.
27), 0.9037 (200-day moving average), 0.8979 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement
level of the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend), 0.8835 (50% Fibonacci retracement
level of the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend).
Resistance: 0.9478 (overnight high), 0.9595 (Jan. 5 high; 6-month
high), 0.9621 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the Jan 1998-Oct 2000
downtrend), 0.9693 (June 19 peak), 0.9702 (June 8 peak), 0.9795 (March 2
high).
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