8 January 2001, 11:02 Early news that nonfarm jobs climbed by 105,000 last month
Early news that nonfarm jobs climbed by 105,000 last month and
the failure of the jobless rate to rise to 4.1% only prompted a brief
selloff Friday morning. The headline report masked signs of growing
weakness in the labor markets including a decline in hours worked and
overtime pay, strategists that is likely to force the Fed to play the
more aggressive 50-bp rate card at month's end. "Some people use a
decline in the hours worked as a proxy for real GDP," said Rupkey.
Accordingly, two large investment banks both are calling for negative
GDP in the first quarter, sources said. A contraction in growth for two
consecutive quarters defines a recession.
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