5 January 2001, 17:45 FOCUS: U.S. unemployment data points to sharp deceleration of growth
WASHINGTON (AFX) - U.S. unemployment data for December points
toward a sharp deceleration of economic growth despite coming in within
expectations, Wall Street economists said.
They are looking for economic growth of 2 pct or below for the
fourth quarter of 2000 and first quarter of 2001 compared with a growth
of between 5-6 pct in the same period last year.
"Although the economy is still growing, we see a relatively sharp
deceleration compared to the same period last year," according to
Kathleen Stephenson, economist at CSFB.
Carol Stone, deputy chief economist at Numura Securities, agreed:
"We are looking for the economy to grow, but very slowly. We now have
two quarters below 2 pct and it would not take much for a swing in
particular items, such as inventories, to push the growth rate further
down. Presently we have a soft landing but we are certainly flirting
with recessionary conditions."
In December, total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 105,000
according to the Labor Department. However, Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S.
economist at High Frequency Economics, pointed out that payrolls are
weaker than expected because government jobs rose 56,000.
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.0 pct from November.
Economists said that the sharp rise in unemployment in the
manufacturing and construction sectors is likely to spill over into the
first months of 2001 and may affect employment in the transport sector
as well.
"If manufacturing continues to slacken, then transport, in
particular trucking, will be affected as there will not be much to
transport if the manufacturing sector slows," Stone added.
Stephenson said labour market conditions will continue to slow in
the manufacturing sector, following the planned lay-offs at General
Motor Corp.
Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics expects job losses in
manufacturing to continue through the first half of the current year.
The continuing slowdown in private sector job growth was also of
concern to economists. Private sector job growth in the fourth quarter
averaged 84,000 per month, only about half of the monthly average
growth in the first nine months of the year.
While the unemployment data was within their expectations,
economists said they were mildly surprised by the rise in hourly
earnings, which rose 0.4 pct in December, and were up 4.2 pct
year-on-year.
However, Stone explained that this sizeable increase was mainly due
to a rise in wages in the finance, insurance and real-estate sectors,
"reflecting end-of-year bonuses."
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