4 January 2001, 17:26  US FX Daily Outlook: Dlr/yen, euro/dlr recoup losses tied to rate - part 2

EUR/USD rebounded from the 6-day low of 0.9262 reached in Asia on news of the surprise Fed rate cut Wednesday. The pair recovered all the losses suffered on the news a day earlier, with European traders guessing the rate move would not offer near-term relief to U.S. equities. European players were not surprised that the ECB chose to leave its refi rate at 4.75%. The Financial Times offered pressure of its own, saying U.S. M&A activity in 1999 hit its lowest level in 2 years. Economic data released from euro-zone countries o/n gave the ECB little reason to ease. French consumer confidence hit a record high in December. Euro zone suffered only a slight dip in December services PMI to 56.2 from 56.4 in November. The euro zone had a trade surplus of 3.7 bln euros in October, compared with a revised deficit of 0.4 bln euros in September. Players also were gearing up for a reversal in U.S. stocks. However, Dow and Nasdaq futures were a shade lower, hinting at a move down from Wednesday's hefty Fed-induced gains to a 6-month high. A French corporate and a Dutch player were rumored buyers on the way up. Resistance is at the 0.9573, Wednesday's session high. The outlook is bullish, with resistance seen at 0.9477, 0.9520 and 0.9568, the 6-month high reached Wednesday. Support: 0.9262 (overnight low), 0.9162 (support line rising since Nov. 27), 0.9039 (200-day moving average), 0.8979 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend), 0.8835 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend). Resistance: 0.9520 (overnight high), 0.9573 (Jan. 3 high; 6-month high), 0.9621 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the Jan 1998-Oct 2000 downtrend), 0.9693 (June 19 peak).

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