4 January 2001, 17:26 US FX Daily Outlook: Dlr/yen, euro/dlr recoup losses tied to rate - part 2
EUR/USD rebounded from the 6-day low of 0.9262 reached in Asia on news
of the surprise Fed rate cut Wednesday. The pair recovered all the losses
suffered on the news a day earlier, with European traders guessing the
rate move would not offer near-term relief to U.S. equities. European
players were not surprised that the ECB chose to leave its refi rate at
4.75%.
The Financial Times offered pressure of its own, saying U.S. M&A
activity in 1999 hit its lowest level in 2 years.
Economic data released from euro-zone countries o/n gave the ECB
little reason to ease. French consumer confidence hit a record high in
December. Euro zone suffered only a slight dip in December services PMI to
56.2 from 56.4 in November. The euro zone had a trade surplus of 3.7 bln
euros in October, compared with a revised deficit of 0.4 bln euros in
September.
Players also were gearing up for a reversal in U.S. stocks. However,
Dow and Nasdaq futures were a shade lower, hinting at a move down from
Wednesday's hefty Fed-induced gains to a 6-month high.
A French corporate and a Dutch player were rumored buyers on the way
up.
Resistance is at the 0.9573, Wednesday's session high.
The outlook is bullish, with resistance seen at 0.9477, 0.9520 and
0.9568, the 6-month high reached Wednesday.
Support: 0.9262 (overnight low), 0.9162 (support line rising since
Nov.
27), 0.9039 (200-day moving average), 0.8979 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement
level of the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend), 0.8835 (50% Fibonacci retracement
level of the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend).
Resistance: 0.9520 (overnight high), 0.9573 (Jan. 3 high; 6-month
high), 0.9621 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the Jan 1998-Oct 2000
downtrend), 0.9693 (June 19 peak).
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