4 January 2001, 12:03 US rate cut won't impact ECB decision; ECB rates seen unchanged
By Jon Cox, BridgeNews
Frankfurt--Jan. 4--The European Central Bank will leave official
interest rates unchanged following its Governing Council teleconference
Thursday despite the decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut official
interest rates Wednesday, analysts here said. While there are signs of
slowing euro-zone growth, this was likely to be temporary compared with
the U.S. where there was a danger of recession, they added.
* * *
On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 50-basis-point cut
in its federal funds rate target to 6.00% and a cut of 25 basis points in
its discount rate to 5.75%.
Analysts said the move by the Fed was generally expected although the
nature of the cut--50 basis points for the Fed funds rate--sent a strong
signal to the markets. However, the situation in Europe was different:
Wage and inflationary pressures were apparent and euro-zone economic
growth is projected to be strong in 2001.
The Fed move "shouldn't have any impact as the move was widely
expected.
Economic data in the eurozone is much better than in the U.S.," said
Michael Schubert, analyst with Commerzbank.
"The ECB has to take into account inflation and wage developments in
Europe where there is an upside risk. The ECB will look at all of its data
and not just follow the U.S.," he added.
Bank Julius Baer analyst David Kohl said the decision by the Fed
indicated that the U.S. economy was in danger of recession. This could
mean that comments from ECB officials will take an increasingly neutral
tone.
But "we don't expect an ECB rate cut because the slowdown in the euro
zone is temporary and because in Europe there is a less relaxed attitude
to inflation," he said, adding that he expected ECB official rates to
remain unchanged for the next 3-6 months.
Annual euro-zone inflation on an EU-harmonized basis (HICPs) for
November reached 2.9%, mainly on the back of higher oil prices and a weak
euro. The ECB has set price stability with an inflationary ceiling of 2%.
BHF Bank Chief Economist Uwe Angenendt agreed: "I don't think (the Fed
cut) will have an impact. Rates will be unchanged. There is a different
situation in the U.S. which is in danger of a recession. Within euroland,
the ECB expects robust growth for 2001."
According to the ECB's December report, real euro-zone GDP is expected
to rise between 2.6% and 3.6% in 2001.
The ECB's key minimum bid rate for weekly refinancing rates is 4.75%
while its deposit and marginal lending rates are 3.75% and 5.75%
respectively. The ECB will announce its decision at 1245 GMT.
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