4 January 2001, 12:03  US rate cut won't impact ECB decision; ECB rates seen unchanged

By Jon Cox, BridgeNews Frankfurt--Jan. 4--The European Central Bank will leave official interest rates unchanged following its Governing Council teleconference Thursday despite the decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut official interest rates Wednesday, analysts here said. While there are signs of slowing euro-zone growth, this was likely to be temporary compared with the U.S. where there was a danger of recession, they added. * * * On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 50-basis-point cut in its federal funds rate target to 6.00% and a cut of 25 basis points in its discount rate to 5.75%. Analysts said the move by the Fed was generally expected although the nature of the cut--50 basis points for the Fed funds rate--sent a strong signal to the markets. However, the situation in Europe was different: Wage and inflationary pressures were apparent and euro-zone economic growth is projected to be strong in 2001. The Fed move "shouldn't have any impact as the move was widely expected. Economic data in the eurozone is much better than in the U.S.," said Michael Schubert, analyst with Commerzbank. "The ECB has to take into account inflation and wage developments in Europe where there is an upside risk. The ECB will look at all of its data and not just follow the U.S.," he added. Bank Julius Baer analyst David Kohl said the decision by the Fed indicated that the U.S. economy was in danger of recession. This could mean that comments from ECB officials will take an increasingly neutral tone. But "we don't expect an ECB rate cut because the slowdown in the euro zone is temporary and because in Europe there is a less relaxed attitude to inflation," he said, adding that he expected ECB official rates to remain unchanged for the next 3-6 months. Annual euro-zone inflation on an EU-harmonized basis (HICPs) for November reached 2.9%, mainly on the back of higher oil prices and a weak euro. The ECB has set price stability with an inflationary ceiling of 2%. BHF Bank Chief Economist Uwe Angenendt agreed: "I don't think (the Fed cut) will have an impact. Rates will be unchanged. There is a different situation in the U.S. which is in danger of a recession. Within euroland, the ECB expects robust growth for 2001." According to the ECB's December report, real euro-zone GDP is expected to rise between 2.6% and 3.6% in 2001. The ECB's key minimum bid rate for weekly refinancing rates is 4.75% while its deposit and marginal lending rates are 3.75% and 5.75% respectively. The ECB will announce its decision at 1245 GMT.

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