31 January 2001, 17:33  The dollar was mixed vs most currencies in early morning trade

The dollar was mixed vs most currencies in early morning trade as traders lightenedpositions and braced for a long day before the 2:15 p.m. EST rate announcement by theFederal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Traders remain uncertain of the reaction for the U.S. currency after the afternoonannouncement and the opposing views seem quite pronounced, analysts said. "Some recalling the dollar's recovery this month began with the Fed's surprise rate cutand expect the dollar to continue to trade higher on ideas that U.S. policy is clearingmoving toward a more pro-growth stance," said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Mellon bank Chandler continued, "Others suspect the euro's lower trend over the past month was'simply' a 'technical' correction to the 16% rally of the preceding 8 weeks and that the U.S.trajectory of the U.S. policy mix--easier monetary and fiscal policy--tends to be associatedwith a weaker currency." Chandler indicated he is more comfortable with the latter view, but would get bearish ifthe euro fell again through the $0.9150-$0.9200 area. The euro-dollar was trading at $0.9331, near the days highs. Traders report talk ofeuro-dollar offers in the $0.9355/75 area. They report talk also of a large option with astrike at $0.9250, expiring at 10:00 am EST, and said there would likely be euro-dollar buying seen ahead of that level. Dollar-yen was trading near Y116.25 with the pairtrading in a tight range so far, traders said. Traders report interest to buy euro-yen wasseen as pushing both the euro-dollar and dollar-yen a bit higher from early New Yorklevels, with euro-yen stop-loss buy orders seen on a break of Y108.50. Euro-yen was trading at 108.47 at 9:22 a.m. There was little lasting reaction to theweaker-than-expected release of Advance Q4 GDP coming in at 1.4 percent, vs medianestimates of 2.0 percent. Market participants, who are fast becoming immune to worsening economic figures,have already factored a rate cut of 50 points into the market, with some analysts callingfor a 25 point cut. "The Fed has put itself in a dangerous possible "lose-lose" scenario today, bysignaling that it will 'do what it takes' to help the economy, and then falling short of whatmany investors feel is necessary to do what it takes," said analysts at Brown BrothersHarriman.

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