26 January 2001, 19:48 Europe FX Review: Dollar reverses on O'Neill, Welteke
London--Jan. 26--The dollar reversed course during the European
session Friday. Dollar weakness after Federal Reserve chairman Alan
Greenspan's Senate testimony Thursday was reversed by above-forecast U.S.
durable goods orders data and statements from senior euro-zone officials
suggesting the European Central Bank (ECB) would need to factor in the
U.S.' emergency interest rate cuts when it meets next week.
However, other euro-zone officials, speaking at the Davos summit,
emphasized that the ECB acted independently of the Federal Reserve.
Sterling gained strength on a Financial Times report suggesting U.K.
Chancellor Brown might add to the "5 economic tests" which need to be met
if the U.K. is to hold a referendum on European Monetary Union (EMU)
entry.
At 1555 GMT, the euro was bid at 0.9210 U.S. dollars from 0.9225 at
the European open, at 107.90 yen from 107.85, at 0.6315 sterling from
0.6325 and at 1.5275 Swiss francs from 1.5240.
The U.S. dollar was bid at 117.05 yen from 116.80, at 1.6580 Swiss
francs from 1.6510 and at 1.5060 Canadian dollars from 1.5070, while
sterling was bid at 1.4585 U.S. dollars from 1.4585, the Australian dollar
at 0.5430 U.S.
dollars from 0.5450 and the New Zealand dollar at 0.4350 U.S. dollars from
0.4350.
The dollar started the day on a determinedly downward path, undermined
by Greenspan's responses to Senators' questions Thursday in which he said
the U.S.
had experienced a "dramatic" slowdown and that U.S. growth was now "very
close to zero."
After trading in extremely narrow ranges in the Asian session because
of the Chinese New Year holidays, European traders started to sell the
dollar from the off.
The euro/dollar pair pushed to a two-day high of 0.9317, while the
dollar/Swiss franc pair hit a two-day low of 1.6395 by mid-morning. The
dollar/yen pair dipped back to a low of 116.33, while the U.S.
dollar/Canadian dollar pair dropped to a three-day low around 1.5005.
However, sentiment toward the euro was undermined by a range of
comments from senior euro-zone officials at the World Economic Forum in
Davos and a Wall Street Journal Europe (AWSE) interview with U.S. Treasury
Secretary O'Neill.
Most damaging for the euro was Bundesbank president and ECB council
member Ernst Welteke, who said that while the bank was currently on hold,
that might change and that the bank would need to mull an interest rate
move if the Federal Reserve cuts another 50 basis points off U.S. interest
rates.
However, ECB chief economist Otmar Issing said the bank made policy
for Europe independently of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Issing said the
bank's standard view of its role was that it believed the euro's
performance was based on price stability and that the bank's policy was
focused on the medium term.
In the dollar's favor, newly appointed U.S Treasury Secretary Paul
O'Neill, in an interview in Friday's WSJE, said that in order to speed the
economic impact of President Bush's proposed tax cuts, the administration
would immediately reduce the amount of money removed from American
paychecks.
The euro began to move lower and above-forecast U.S. durable goods
orders data released later in the session cemented the trend as the
dollar's budding recovery was boosted further.
U.S. durable goods orders were boosted by aircraft orders and rose an
above-forecast 2.2% on the month in December, against forecasts of a 1.2%
month-on-month fall.
The euro/dollar pair dropped back to an intraday low of 0.9196, while
dollar/Swiss franc bounced to mark out a high for the day at 1.6605 toward
the close. The dollar/yen pair pushed to a high of 117.35, while the U.S.
dollar/Canadian dollar pair bounced back to the 1.5070 region.
On the crosses, the euro/yen cross came under heavy selling pressure
from a U.S. bank and fell to an intraday low of 107.30, adding to
euro/dollar's woes.
The euro/Swiss franc cross bounced to a two-day high of 1.5321 on the
news that France's Axa sold 2.7 million shares in Switzerland's Credit
Suisse for 584.1 million euros.
Switzerland's KOF Institute's monthly index of the Swiss economy,
which forecasts developments in six to nine months' time, fell to 0.86 in
December.
November's initially reported 1.01 reading was also revised down to 0.94.
KOF said "the forward looking nature of the index should result in the
2000 slowdown in GDP being continued in the coming months." However, the
report had little impact.
Elsewhere in the euro-zone, Germany's Handelsblatt newspaper reported
Friday that the federal government would retain a forecast of 2.75% gross
domestic product growth for 2001, despite a request by Finance Minister
Hans Eichel to cut the forecast to 2.6%.
Germany's Bundestag sent the governing coalition's pension reform
plans to the upper house, although expectations are that it will be
rejected, at least in part.
Euro-zone economic data had little impact.
Euro-zone three-month M3 grew 5.0% on the year in December, slightly
above forecasts, and well above the ECB's 4.5% reference level.
Italian retail sales rose a well-below forecast 1.5% on the year in
November. Italian statistics agency ISTAT said retail sales should grow a
"more or less" real 1.5% in 2001.
The Dutch business confidence index stood at +3.8 in December, down
from +6.1 in November, and well below the +4 to +5.7 reading forecast in a
BridgeNews poll of analysts.
Dutch capacity utilization edged up to a 84.8% rate in December, from
November's 84.7%.
In a radio interview, Greek Finance Minister Yannos Papantoniou hinted
that his departure from the ministry remained an open issue. Speculation
has been rife for some time now that Papantoniou had asked for a different
portfolio after Greece's accession to EMU in June.
Sterling took advantage of dollar strength in the morning, cable
pushing to a two-day high around 1.4690, before dropping back to the
1.4555 area as the dollar recovered in the afternoon.
The euro/sterling cross traded a narrow range before dropping to the
0.6305 area as the euro softened in the afternoon.
U.K. preliminary gross domestic product data had little impact,
despite showing a below-forecast 0.3% on the month and 2.4% year-on-year
rises in the fourth quarter of 2000.
The Office of National Statistics said the slowdown was "broadly
based." The data will increase expectations of a cut to the 6.0% repo rate
at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in February.
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