PARIS (AFX) - The European Central Bank will leave interest rates unchanged at its governing council meeting next Thursday, but a cut in rates is firmly expected by the end of the second quarter, according to a poll of economists by AFX News and Agence France-Presse.
Of 36 economists polled, 35 said they expect the minimum bid rate on the ECB's main refinancing operations to remain at 4.75 pct after Thursday's meeting. Natexis Banques Populaires economist Marc Touati forecast a cut to 4.50 pct.
However, a majority of those surveyed -- 25 of the 36 -- said they expect the ECB to reduce rates by the end of June.
Seventeen predicted that the rate cut will come in the second quarter, two forecast a March-April easing move and five forecast a March cut.
Of the remaining 11 participants, eight said they expect rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of the year, one forecast a third quarter rate reduction and two said a cut could come at any time in the second or third quarter.
By the end of the year, most economists -- 23 of the 36 -- expect the refi rate to be between 4.25 and 4.50 pct. Fourteen forecast an end-year rate of 4.25 pct, eight predicted 4.50 pct and one offered a range of 4.25-4.50 pct.
Three said the rate will be at 4.00 pct at the end of the year and one forecast 3.75 pct.