25 January 2001, 16:52 US Employment Cost Index--OVERVIEW
--US Q4 employment cost index +0.8% from Q3; +4.1% from year ago
--US Q4 employment cost index +0.8% smallest increase since Q3 1999
--US Q4 wages +0.7% from Q3; benefits +0.8%
--US Q4 wages +3.8% from year ago; benefits +4.9%
--US Q4 private wages +0.7% from Q3; +3.9% from year ago
By Simon Kennedy and Andrew Williams, BridgeNews
Washington--Jan. 25--The cost of employing a U.S. worker rose a
seasonally adjusted 0.8% in the final quarter of 2000, the smallest
increase since the third quarter of 1999, the Labor Department said
Thursday. During 2000, the increase in the employment cost index
decelerated in each quarter. The rise in the ECI was below economists'
expectations of a 1.1% rise. The ECI was up 4.1% from a year ago, compared
with the 4.4% advance analysts had expected.
* * *
The increase in the ECI, which measures the cost to employers of
employee wages, salaries and benefits, was slower than the 0.9% surge in
the previous quarter.
The latest 12-month change in the ECI marks a deceleration from the
4.3% rise in the July-September period. However, the 4.1% increase in 2000
was the largest annual increase since 1991.
Evidence that wage inflation decelerated through 2000 is likely to
mean the Federal Reserve can continue focus on economic weakness rather
than the inflation threat of a tight labor market. Fed Chairman Alan
Greenspan testifies to the Senate Budget Committee at 1000 ET Thursday,
and the Federal Open Market Committee meets next week to set short-term
interest rate policy.
WAGES, SALARIES & BENEFITS:
Wages and salaries in the ECI climbed an adjusted 0.7% in the first
quarter from the prior quarter, the smallest increase since the first
quarter of 1999, and were up 3.8% from a year ago. In the third quarter,
wages were up 0.8%.
Private industry wages rose 0.7% between October and December from the
prior quarter.
Meanwhile, cost pressures from the benefits component of the ECI
slowed.
Benefits increased 0.8% in after rising 1.0% in the third quarter. Bill
Wiatrowski, a Bureau of Labor statistics economist, said that having
reached 2.0% increase in the second quarter, benefit costs have trended
lower, bringing down the overall index.
Compared to a year ago, benefits were up 4.9%.
WHAT WAS EXPECTED:
Economists surveyed by BridgeNews estimated the ECI increase in a
range of up 0.6% to 2.2% in the fourth quarter. For the annual rate,
predictions ranged from 3.5% to 4.7%. End
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