19 January 2001, 16:33 US Trade Data-OVERVIEW
--US Nov trade deficit widens/narrows -1.7% to $33.0 bln
--US Nov goods/services imports -1.1%; exports -0.8%
--US Oct trade deficit revised to $33.6 bln from $33.2 bln
--US Nov goods trade gap $39.0 bln; Oct revised to $39.9 bln
--US November oil imports -7.6%; non-oil imports -0.8%
--US Nov deficit with OPEC nations $3.8 bln; Oct $4.3 bln
--US November imported crude petroleum $28.40 bbl; Oct $28.62 bbl
--US November civilian aircraft exports -8.9%
--Ex-civilian aircraft, US November goods exports -0.7%.
--US November trade gap with Japan -$6.8 bln; Oct -$8.4 bln
--US November trade gap with China -$7.6 bln; Oct -$9.1 bln
--US Nov deficit with euro area $4.3 bln; Oct deficit $4.6 bln
--US Nov deficit with Canada record $4.7 bln; Oct deficit $4.6 bln
By Simon Kennedy, BridgeNews
Washington--Jan. 19--Falling demand for foreign petroleum and capital
goods forced U.S. imports down 1.1% in November, narrowing the U.S. trade
deficit to $33.0 billion, just shy of October's $33.6 billion but in line
with analysts' expectations. Exports also dropped 0.8%, amid decreases in
overseas purchases of U.S. capital goods and automobiles.
The November U.S. trade deficit reflected a $39.0-billion shortfall in
goods and a $6.0-billion surplus in services.
The trade deficit has now declined for two consecutive months, the
first time since summer 1997.
In the year to November, the U.S. trade deficit was $335.9 billion,
well above the record $270.2 billion for the entire year of 1999. The
trade gap is now on track to set a new historical high in 2000 around $365
billion, meaning the United States buys more than $1 billion more in goods
and services than it sells each day.
The deficit has been largely ignored by financial markets, where
economists argue it reflects the strong performance of the U.S. economy
and the attractiveness of U.S. assets. That line was echoed Wednesday by
Treasury secretary-designate Paul O'Neill who said he was not "alarmed" by
the trade imbalance.
But more concern could focus on the trade deficit as the economy slows
and the stock market trades sideways.
If the economy cools rapidly or stock prices crumble, global money
managers may tire of financing the deficit and decide to shift their funds
elsewhere, unsettling the dollar, stocks and the inflation-wary Federal
Reserve.
Despite the outlook of pessimists, others see the deficit topping out
soon as U.S. economic growth decelerates, energy costs reverse and demand
from other nations picks up.
PETROLEUM LEADS IMPORTS LOWER
Leading imports lower were declines in both petroleum price and
demand. In November, imported crude averaged $28.40 per barrel, down from
October's $28.62. Meanwhile, imports of crude petroleum fell to 8.5
million barrels per day--the lowest level since January--from 9.5 million
the prior month. Overall, petroleum imports fell 7.6% to $6.7 billion.
Reflecting the lower demand for oil, the U.S. trade deficit with OPEC
countries slid to $3.8 billion, from $4.3 billion in October.
Excluding petroleum, U.S. goods imports were down 0.8% to a seasonally
adjusted $93.9 billion.
Drops of $1.1 billion in imports of industrial supplies, $800 million
in capital goods and $200 million in automobiles also weighed on imports.
However, while some may suggest the fall in imports provides further proof
that the economy is slowing, consumer goods imports rose by $200 million.
In the year through November, imports increased 19.4% on a census
basis compared with the same period in 1999, or 15.1% excluding petroleum.
Also on a census basis, the $1.6 billion fall in November imports marked
the steepest drop since February 1991, when imports fell $1.9 billion.
EXPORTS ALSO SLIP
U.S. goods and services exports contracted 0.8% in November to $90.4
billion, amid falling shipments of capital goods, automobiles and foods
and beverages. Offsetting these declines, exports of consumer goods and
industrial supplies both rose.
--Civilian aircraft exports fell 8.9% to $1.8 billion. But excluding
sales of civilian aircraft, goods exports were 0.7% below the prior month.
In the year through November, exports increased 13.1% on a census
basis compared with the same period in 1999, or 12.7% excluding petroleum.
WHAT WAS EXPECTED
The November trade deficit matched the median expectation of analysts.
Individual forecasts ranged from $32.0 billion to $34.0 billion. The
median estimate for the goods deficit was $39.5 billion, in a range of
$38.5 billion to $40.9 billion.
US TRADE GAP WITH SELECTED COUNTRIES
The U.S. trade position improved with most key trading partners. The
government does not seasonally adjust the bilateral trade statistics, so
changes in the U.S. trade situation with individual countries may not
synchronize with the overall trade gap.
The November report showed the politically sensitive U.S. trade gap
with Japan narrowed $6.8 billion from October's record $8.4 billion. The
deficit with China fell to $7.6 billion--the first decline in 8
months--from a record $9.1 billion a month earlier.
--The trade gap with the euro-area countries was $4.3 billion in
November, down from $4.6 billion one month earlier.
--The November trade deficit with Canada rose to a record $4.7
billion, from $4.6 billion in October. End
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