16 January 2001, 17:42  West German December Consumer Confidence Rose to 97, Icon Says

Nuremberg, Germany, Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Western German consumerconfidence rose in December for a second straight month, as oil prices andunemployment fell and shoppers looked forward to tax cuts, the Icon researchinstitute said. Germany's most widely watched index of consumer confidence, based on asurvey of 2,000 people, rose to 97 from 96 in November. The reading below 100shows pessimists still outnumber optimists. Western Germany accounts forabout 90 percent of Europe's largest economy. ``It's not the big breakthrough yet, but things are improving,'' Icon ManagingDirector Ruediger Szallies said in an interview. Today's report raises hopes household spending will recover this year after aweak 2000, fanning retail sales and economic growth. Growth in privateconsumption slowed to 1.9 percent last year from a 2.6 percent increase in1999, the Federal Statistics Office reported last week. The government last year agreed to cut taxes worth a net 63 billion deutschemarks ($30.71 billion) through 2005, according to Bundesbank estimates. Someof those cuts took effect this month. Germany's jobless rate gradually fellthrough last year to 9.2 percent in December, the lowest level since March1995. Oil prices have fallen more than 20 percent since mid-November. For now, shopkeepers see little improvement. A report earlier today showedGerman retail sales fell 1.3 percent in November, the strongest monthly declinesince June and the third in a row. Sales rose 0.5 percent in the year. Icon's Szallies said what might have limited the gain in consumer confidence inDecember was the discovery of the first German case of ``mad cow'' disease theprevious month. This caused beef demand to plummet and the resignation oftwo government ministers last week. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy, orBSE, is believed by scientists to cause a similar, fatal disease in humans. Icon bases its survey on interviews conducted by the European Commissionwith consumers in Western Germany.

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