16 January 2001, 15:29  Euro-zone third quarter growth was unrevised

Euro-zone third quarter growth was unrevised, as expected, butchanges in the components may brighten the economic outlooksomewhat. In particular, the change in inventories was revised sharplydownwards to +0.6% of GDP from the +0.9% originally reported. Thismeans that inventories were lower than previously thought, leavingroom for greater industrial production in the period ahead. Still, household consumption was revised slightly downwards to +0.3% quarter-over-quarter from the +0.4% q/q originally reported, in line with showing euro-zone consumer confidence ebbed slightly in the third quarter (to -1 from 0 in the second quarter, according to the EU Commission's confidence index). It will be interesting to see if the rebound in consumer sentiment seen in December is reinforced by the income tax cuts that took effect at the beginning of the year in several euro-zone countries and the continued improvement in the zone'slabor market, as assumed by the ECB and other euro-zone policymakers. Combining the inventory and private consumption revisions, euro-zone third quarter domestic demand was revised down to +0.6%q/q from +0.9% q/q. Offsetting this decline was an upward revision in net exports to +2.2% of GDP from +1.9% previously. This was due entirely to adownward revision in import growth (to 3.0% q/q from +3.7%); exportgrowth was unrevised at +3.0%. A Eurostat official said the revision to imports was due to additional information available for euro-zone countries whose datawas estimated in the original report. He said it was not possible todraw economic conclusions from the revision.

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